Monday Morning Roundup

Indonesian authorities are reporting another teenager has tested positive for the avian flu virus, and that he is on a ventilator in a hospital outside of Jakarta. Meanwhile, local news reports indicate that 3 suspected bf patients have fled the hospital in Northern Sumatra.

Negative tests continue to show up, and yet, often when these `negative’ patients go on to die, further examination shows they did have H5N1. Curiously, it requires 1 local positive test, and two confirmatory tests outside of the country, before the WHO accepts any patient as being positive. Yet, only one negative test is required to rule out avian flu.

The tests used in humans are notorious for not detecting the virus. Blood tests are useless early on in the disease, and sputum tests often fail to detect the virus.

Thailand now has most of the country on `red alert’ for bird flu. They are also experiencing an unusually high mortality rate for seasonal flu, and that bears watching, too. Neighboring Vietnam and Laos are reporting outbreaks in birds.

We also have confirmation now that cats in Iraq contracted the virus. This adds to the evidence that other mammals can catch the virus, and can presumably become carriers.

The only really good news is, after more than a year of international pressure, Indonesia has released the genetic sequences they have been holding. Hopefully this data will add to our knowledge of mutations, and will help us determine how great the threat has become. I hope to have more details on this over the next few weeks.

While this is the slow season for flu in the Northern Hemisphere, Avian Flu has not gone away. It is out there; simmering, replicating, and mutating. Still looking for that magical combination that will set it free.

While we may be enjoying this respite, we are only a couple of months away from the next flu season. All eyes should remain fixed on this threat. It isn't going away.