You Can Run . . .

Among those who are watching the avian flu threat, a certain number have decided it is in their best interest to head for the hills when the dam busts. Sadly, some of these people are doctors, nurses, and other essential personnel. While I understand their fears, and to some extent their reasons, I believe that while you can run from this virus, you can’t hide.

I’ll present what I consider to be a more logical response in another post. But for now, let’s examine the feasibility of heading for the hills. Is it even practical?

The assumption is a pandemic would last for 18 months, as that is how long the 1918 pandemic persisted. The next pandemic could last just as long, or longer. Or it could sweep thru quickly. Nobody really knows.

To be absolutely safe from the virus, one must isolate themselves away from any possibility of infection. That means zero contact with the outside world. None. Nada. The virus could arrive piggybacked to a visitor’s immune system, or thru contaminated money, or even in an infected letter left in the curbside mailbox by your local carrier. Once you go into seclusion, you’d have to turn away friends, relatives, neighbors, and even local authorities.

There are many who are planning to do this. Some have cabins in the woods to bug out to, while others will sequester themselves in their homes, locking the doors and barring the windows for the duration. I’ve heard of elaborate plans, huge stockpiles of food, water, and medicine, and even plans to meet any visitors with firearms to turn them away. In some cases, it will be a small family, in other cases, several families have banded together, pooling their resources.

Stockpiling food, water, and medicine for 18 months for a family or group is a daunting task. It is expensive, it requires ample storage, and extreme foresight to envision everything you might need. Obviously very few people will actually be able to do this. Some are stockpiling 3 months, or six months worth of supplies, and are praying the pandemic is over, or a vaccine is developed before their food runs out.

While I understand the allure of such a plan, none of this seems terribly practical to me. Logistically it would be a nightmare to SIP (Shelter in Place) for months on end. And all it would take is an infected bird depositing droppings on your windowsill, an unplanned medical emergency, or some external event like a flood, hurricane, or fire to screw the whole deal.

Worse, assuming you could do it, knowing when to emerge would be a real problem. Yes, the pandemic in 1918 lasted 18 months, but no one knew it was over in 1919. The assumption was it could come back again. And there is evidence that the Spanish flu did persist at low levels for years afterwards. At what point to you exit your self inflicted solitary confinement and expose yourself? You, after all, would have developed no immunity to the virus while sequestered.

Hunkering down until a vaccine is developed sounds good, but experts tell us it could be 3 years or more before that happens.

I suppose if you already live on a small farm in the backwoods somewhere, and are self sufficient now, it might be worth a shot. A small family might be able to maintain bio security for a year or two, assuming no one developed appendicitis or chopped off a leg with an axe. But few of us have those skills, or the requisite farm, so the question is probably moot.

Undaunted by reality, many will try this strategy. Some will head to the hills with backpacks and tents, others will nail boards across their windows of their town homes and stand watch at the door with a shotgun.

I guess these folks are picking their poison. Better to die of domestic violence brought on by prolonged isolation, or from starvation, than from the virus.

There are reasons to stockpile food, to maintain social distancing, and to prepare for the pandemic. But there are better ways to do it. Running away is a long shot. In my next post, I’ll address what I consider to be more rational methods of enduring a pandemic.