Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Egypt: No Easy Fixes















# 570

This article, from the BBC, goes into depth on some of the problems Egypt faces in trying to combat their bird flu problem. It also raises fears that the virus is changing, a concern raised recently by the discovery of Tamiflu resistance among several patients in January.


The entire article is illuminating, and well worth reading.


Egypt fears of bird flu mutation


Scientists in Egypt are examining the possibility that the deadly H5N1 Avian flu virus could be changing into a deadlier strain.


Dr Suhir Hallaj, director of the World Health Organization's communicable disease programme says there is particular concern that previous victims in Egypt have suffered from respiratory problems.


Nadia Hafez, who died in Egypt's Fayoum region last month, experienced multi-organ failure which failed to respond to anti-viral drugs.


So far the Egyptians who have died had direct contact with birds, but there is a fear the virus will cross the species barrier causing a pandemic which will disrupt world economies and claim lives on an unprecedented scale.


Egypt, which is a high risk area for avian flu and a gateway to Africa, is under growing pressure from the international community to control the spread of bird flu among poultry.

With mutations and an increase in mortality, things shouldn't be taken lightly

Health Minister Hatem el-Gabaly


A UN-commissioned report accused the Egyptian government of lacking commitment and failing to develop a national strategy.

Partner agencies within the UN were also criticised for a lack of co-ordination.

The report questioned Egypt's ability to plan and execute a credible response to the threat of pandemic.


The problems facing Egypt are likely more visible because they have better surveillance than other African nations.


Over the past year, outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 have been reported in poultry and wild birds in eight African nations: Nigeria, Egypt, Niger, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Côte d'Ivoire and Djibouti.


Human infections have only been reported in 3: Egypt, Djibouti, and Nigeria, with 24 of the 26 reported infections occurring in Egypt.


The idea that the virus has played hopscotch across the African continent, attacking one country, but skipping over others, stretches credulity, as does the idea that Egypt, with the best health care system of the lot, has been hit disproportionately hard by the virus.


If things are bad in Egypt, where they are actively looking for cases, and have reasonable access to medical care, then things are probably worse in nations that do not look for the virus, and where medical care is a scarce resource.


We just don't hear about them.


A case where no news isn't necessarily good news.