# 3264
Producing and distributing a safe and effective influenza pandemic vaccine in a short period of time to hundreds of millions (and hopefully billions) of people has never been done before.
In 1976, during the last emergency flu inoculation program, we managed to give about 40 million Americans swine flu shots over a 10 week period. All did not go as planned, however (see Deja Flu, All Over Again).
Despite early media speculation that mass production of a Swine Flu vaccine for the fall was pretty much `a given’, public health officials are now delaying making any decision until the last possible moment.
Today we have an excellent report (as always) from Helen Branswell of the Canadian Press on some of reasons for delaying a decision.
As always, it is worth following the link to read Ms. Branswell’s article in its entirety.
Swine flu vaccine decisions likely to be delayed as long as possible: experts
By Helen Branswell – 13 hours ago
TORONTO — International public health officials signalled Tuesday they are playing for time on the thorny questions of how much swine flu vaccine to make and then whether to use it.
Officials of the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control acknowledged they hope to put off for as long as possible these difficult decisions, made more challenging by the mildness of the H1N1 swine flu virus.
The WHO's top flu expert said he doesn't expect the Geneva-based agency to make any recommendations on whether manufacturers should go into widescale production until early summer.
And the director of the CDC's national centre of immunization and respiratory diseases said the U.S. may not take a decision on who to vaccinate until late summer or early fall.
"It is going to be a very difficult and complicated discussion if the situation remains as it does at the time when decisions have to be made," admitted Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's acting assistant director general of health security and environment.
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4 comments:
I have a question.
So, say this flu does not get more virulent but continues to simmer in North America over the summer (some people still getting sick) and then in August or Sept or Oct when regular flu season starts back, this is the main influenza.
Say it maintains its transmissibility? Is still very contagious. What will it be stopped by?
And secondly, how many people would die in North America if it becomes widely dispersed among the population?
I guess another way of asking this, is how do so many people NOT get influenza?
Phytosleuth,
You ask great questions. Wish I had better answers ;)
Here are my best guesses . . .
Without a vaccine (in the arms of the population ), the prospects for stopping a novel flu epidemic would seem pretty slim.
If you look at the 1918 pandemic, there were bad flu years, and major spikes in mortality, for the next 10 years.
Social distancing, and other NPIs, can help slow down the rate of transmission ( and probably lengthen any pandemic wave ), but I don't think they are going to stop the virus.
Ultimately, unless a virus mutates itself into something less `fit' you need herd immunity to stop an epidemic.
Either through exposure and development of antibodies, or through a vaccine.
I honestly don't know how most people can avoid exposure over a period of months and months.
As far as how many people it could kill - well, if it retains the same lethality of seasonal flu - but has double the attack rate (ie. 20%), then I suppose instead of 36,000 deaths we might be looking at 70,000.
A lot of `ifs' of course. But right now, we don't have a whole lot else to go on.
Ah. Good points. The one that really struck me was:
"If you look at the 1918 pandemic, there were bad flu years, and major spikes in mortality, for the next 10 years."
Oh how silly of me! Da. (finger twist in the cheek) Here I was thinking this was just a once in a decade thing and that it'd be over with quickly.
(Frowning seriously now) Oh dear. That's another possible scenario I hadn't considered.
Sorry about that, Phytosleuth.
However, you have inspired me to write about the H1N1 experience of the 1920's.
Coming to this blog soon. ;)
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