# 5781
This morning the National Hurricane Center in Miami issued hurricane and tropical storm watches for portions of the mid-Atlantic coastline. A `watch’ indicates that the specified storm conditions are possible in the region within 48 hours.
Tropical storm watches extend from north of Edisto Beach, S.C. to Surf City, N.C..
A hurricane watch is in effect from Surf City, N.C. to the North Carolina – Virginia border including the Pamlico, Albemarle, and Currituck Sounds.
Additional watches and warnings will be issued when appropriate.
Overnight Irene appears to have undergone an EWRC (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle) which has temporarily weakened the storm slightly. The 5am discussion from the NHC pegs her sustained winds at no more than 100 knots (115 MPH), but models suggest some additional strengthening is possible.
The intensity of a hurricane is more difficult to forecast than her track, so there is always some degree of uncertainty as to just how powerful a storm will be 48 to 72 hours in the future.
Nevertheless, here are this morning’s estimates from the 5am discussion from the NHC.
This morning’s discussion also notes that the official track forecast has been shifted very slightly to the west, and is roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope which is bracketed by the UKMET on the east and the GFDL model on the west.
Irene remains a very large and powerful storm, and even if it’s center should manage to stay offshore, it is capable of causing heavy damage and disruption along the eastern seaboard and even into New England.
Interests along the eastern seaboard of the United States should take this threat seriously, even those who live well inland.
Last May National Hurricane Preparedness week was observed, and during that month this blog devoted considerable space to that topic.
A few of my blogs on the subject included:
National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2011
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding
How Not To Be Gone With The Wind
Getting SLOSHed For Hurricane Season
Along with some general preparedness blogs:
Some essential hurricane preparedness resources include:
http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm
http://www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html
While some very good information and analysis can be had through non-official channels on the internet, you should only rely on local emergency management officials, the National Hurricane Center, and the National Weather Service for:
- forecasts
- warnings
- evacuation recommendations
That said, you can find some alternative hurricane resources from my blog post called Online Hurricane Resources from last June.
