The Epi Curve from hell – Monrovia
Today the World Health Organization has published their third Ebola Roadmap Situation Report, which continues to show the Ebola epidemic spiraling out of control in Western Africa. The WHO also held a press briefing this morning (which I confess, I’ve not had time to listen to) with even more current numbers. You’ll find the audio link below:
Speakers: Dr Margaret Chan, WHO Director- General and Dr Roberto Morales Ojeda, Minister of Public Health, Cuba.
- Audio of the press briefing
mp3, 62 Mb, [01:17:00]
I’ve only excerpted a portion of the SitRep, Follow the link to read the entire 7-page PDF file.
12 September 2014
This is the third in a series of regular situation reports on the Ebola Response Roadmap1. The report contains a review of the epidemiological situation, and an assessment of the response measured against the core Roadmap indicators where available. Additional indicators will be reported as data are consolidated.
The data contained in this report are based on the best information available. Substantial efforts are ongoing to improve the availability and accuracy of information about both the epidemiological situation and the implementation of the response.
Following the roadmap structure, country reports fall into three categories: those with widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone); those with an initial case or cases, or with localized transmission (Nigeria, Senegal); and those countries that neighbour areas of active transmission (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Senegal).
The total number of probable, confirmed and suspected cases in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was 4366, with 2218 deaths, as at 7 September 2014 (see table 1). Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone. Figure 1 below shows the total number of cases by country that have been reported between the start of 30 December 2013 (epidemiological week 1) and end 7 September 2014 (epidemiological week 36).
1. COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION
There has been no indication of any down-turn in the epidemic in the three countries that have widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone), with a surge in new cases in Liberia a particular cause for concern (see table 1). Transmission is continuing in urban areas, with the surge in Liberia being driven primarily by a sharp increase in the number of cases reported in the capital, Monrovia.
The figures below show the numbers of confirmed and probable new cases over time in each of the countries with widespread and intense transmission, accompanied by numbers of cases over time in capital cities. For Liberia, it is notable that the proportion of suspected cases that result in death is high (211 deaths from 453 suspected cases; 47%), which suggests that many of the suspected cases are in fact genuine cases.