The disturbance in the Caribbean I mentioned yesterday has developed enough closed circulation to be named a tropical depression this morning, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for Florida's Gulf coast.
While most of the models predict this storm will top out at as moderately strong tropical storm, even storms of this size can prove destructive. Tornadoes can spin up, torrential rains can cause flooding, and coastal tides can run several feet above normal.
The advisory, issued today at 11am, reads:
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area Monday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
Although this system is unlikely to pose a major threat, my region could see some power outages, and minor damage.
If I'm briefly offline Monday night or Tuesday, you'll know why.
Last month in Hurricane Preparedness 2016, we looked at the things you and your family can do to prepare for tropical weather. If you haven't already done so, now would be a very good time to review your plans and preparations.
As always, when it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
And if you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.