The World Health Organization has published their most recent update on H7N9 in China, which includes a summary of 18 cases reported in the middle of March.
While we've seen a major spike in human infections this year, we've not seen any evidence of sustained or efficient human to human transmission, and therefore the WHO deems the likelihood of further community level spread to be low.
Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – China
Disease outbreak news
3 April 2017
On 24 March 2017, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China (NHFPC) notified WHO of 18 additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in mainland China.
Details of the cases
Onset dates ranged from 9 March to 15 March 2017. Of these 18 cases, seven were female. The median age is 68 years old (age range among the cases is 37 to 86 years old). The cases were reported from Anhui (1), Fujian (1) Guangxi (5), Guizhou (1), Henan (1), Hubei (2), Hunan (4), Jiangxi (1), and Zhejiang (2).
At the time of notification, there were two deaths, and 16 cases were diagnosed as either pneumonia (2) or severe pneumonia (14). Sixteen cases were reported to have had exposure to poultry or live poultry market. One case is still under investigation. No clusters were reported.
To date, a total of 1347 laboratory-confirmed human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus have been reported through IHR notification since early 2013.
Public health response
Considering the increase in the number of human cases since December 2016, the Chinese government at national and local levels is taking further measures including:
Continuing to strengthen control measures with a focus on hygienic management of live poultry markets and cross-regional transportation.
Assessing and analysing the avian influenza A(H7N9) epidemic trend to guide control measures in the provinces.
Increasing attention and guidance to provinces reporting more cases in epidemic control and prevention.
Conducting public risk communication and information publicity to provide the public with guidance on self-protection.
WHO risk assessment
The number of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) in the fifth epidemic wave (i.e. onset since 1 October 2016) is greater than the numbers of human cases reported in earlier waves.
Human infections with the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus remain unusual. Close observation of the epidemiological situation and further characterization of the most recent human viruses are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.
Most human cases are exposed to avian influenza A(H7N9) virus through contact with infected poultry or contaminated environments, including live poultry markets. Since the virus continues to be detected in animals and environments, and live poultry vending continues, further human cases can be expected.
Although small clusters of cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus have been reported including those involving patients in the same ward, current epidemiological and virological evidence suggests that this virus has not acquired the ability of sustained transmission among humans. Therefore the likelihood of further community level spread is considered low.