Thursday, May 24, 2018

NHC: 80% Chance Of Tropical Development In Gulf This Weekend


Technically, the Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't start for another week, but as I mentioned on Tuesday (see A Pre-Season Reminder To Prepare), the tropics don't always follow the rules.   
What was given a 40% chance to develop on Tuesday now has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical or sub-tropical system over the next 5 days. 
None of this speaks to its intensity - which is likely to top out as a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm - but it does remind us of the value of being ready for the upcoming hurricane season.

Yesterday NOAA released their estimate for the Pacific Hurricane season (see NOAA predicts a near- or above-normal 2018 hurricane season in the central Pacific), and we should get their take on the Atlantic hurricane season in the next week or so. 
If you haven't started your 2018 hurricane preparedness, I'd invite you to revisit Tuesday's blog and  Hurricane Preparedness Week 2018 (May 6th - May 12th).
The 8am Tropical Outlook from the NWS National Hurricane Center follows:


Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad, stationary surface low pressure system centered over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.

Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan Peninsula.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products issued by your local weather office. 
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 200 PM EDT this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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