Wednesday, August 21, 2019

A Curious Narrative To The Beijing H5N6 Report



























#14,254

Yesterday, in Hong Kong CHP Notified Of A Human H5N6 Case In Beijing, we learned of the first human H5N6 infection to be reported since November of 2018, reportedly involving `. . .  a 59-year-old female from Beijing. She was hospitalised on August 11. She is now in a critical condition.'

While provided details were scant, I mentioned a few unusual aspects to that report.
  • This is the first case reported from China's capital; Beijing
  • This is the first case reported outside of Southern China
  • And there was no mention of recent contact with poultry
My attempt to gather further information from the Beijing Municipal CDC website was foiled, as their website is reportedly down for maintenance (2019年8月20日至2019年8月22日, 北京市疾病预防控制中心网站安全升级改造,给您带来不便,请谅解.)

Today China Daily  - which is an arm of the  Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China - has published an English language report (emphasis mine) that provides an interesting version of events; one that seems to be doing everything it can to distance Beijing from the virus.

Beijing confirms avian influenza detected in expat


By Du Juan | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2019-08-21 13:28  
 
Beijing confirmed that a 59-year-old female expatriate who came to the city three months ago was carrying avian influenza H5N6, according to the municipal center for disease control and prevention's report on Tuesday.

The woman complained of symptoms on Aug 6. She reportedly contacted with dead poultry before she got sick and the poultry was not from Beijing, according to the authority.

"The disease is under control," the statement said, adding that people should take precautions before contacting poultry.

While we are not told where this `expat'  lived prior to coming to Beijing
- 3 months ago - this report states she was `carrying H5N6'.  Exactly how she was carrying avian flu it isn't specified.
Perhaps she brought her own poultry with her to Beijing, but if so, that significant factoid was left unmentioned.
The relatively short (3-7 day) incubation period of avian influenza would make  the idea that the patient arrived in Beijing 3 months ago already infected a non-starter, but this story actually appears to be trying to leave that impression.
A similarly vague report from Xinhua News simply says `The 59-year-old patient came to Beijing three months ago and had been exposed to slaughtered poultry before developing symptoms on Aug. 6.'
While China has never been the poster child for openness, with their 70th anniversary (Oct 1st) now only 5 weeks away - and China already dealing with 70+ days of Hong Kong protests, a deepening trade war, and a devastating year-long African Swine Fever epizootic - some aggressive `smoothing over' of bad news is probably to be expected.  
But it is a reminder that `no news' - such as we've seen come out of China on  Avian flu for the past year or two - doesn't necessarily mean `good news'.