Credit ACIP/CDC
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Not quite 11 months ago the EU Commission secured access for Member States to purchase 665,000 doses of zoonotic influenza vaccines to prevent avian flu, with the first shipment to go to Finland which had recently experienced a prolonged H5 outbreak in fur farms (see Finland: MOH Announcement On Avian Flu Vaccine Availability For People At High Risk).
This initial order was enough to vaccinate 330,000 people, and the full order enough for 20 million. But the EU would need something in excess of 1 billion doses to cover their entire population.
While there is genuine concern that existing vaccines may be less effective against an emerging pandemic strain, we've seen a number of nations secure relatively small quantities of H5 vaccines over the past 12 months, including:
- The United States ordered about 4.8 million doses last summer, enough for about 2.4 million people.
- Last December the UK announced plans to purchase 5 million doses
- Less than 3 months ago Canada PHAC Announces Plans To Purchase 500,000 doses Of H5N1 Vaccine.
This week the EU Commission has announced another procurement contract, with will substantially increase the number of pre-pandemic vaccine doses which can be ordered by member countries.
Press release Apr 28, 2025 Brussels
Commission offers 17 countries the possibility to purchase over 27 million influenza vaccine doses
The European Union is strengthening its preparedness for a potential flu pandemic. A new joint procurement contract, signed by the European Commission, through the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority, offers 17 countries the possibility to purchase up to 27,403,200 pandemic influenza vaccine doses.
The agreement, concluded with pharmaceutical company Seqirus UK Ltd., secures supplies of Foclivia, a vaccine to protect against flu when a pandemic has been officially declared by the World Health Organization or the European Union. A flu pandemic occurs when a new type (strain) of flu virus can spread easily from person to person because people have no immunity against it. While it is difficult to predict an influenza pandemic, today's joint procurement framework contract is part of the Commission's wider work on strengthening EU-level preparedness and response to protect the health of citizens.
This joint procurement builds on a previous agreement signed with CSL Seqirus in 2019 and an agreement signed with GSK in 2022 under which participating countries can purchase vaccine doses in the event of an influenza pandemic.
The framework contract is concluded for a period of 48 months. It can be further renewed two times for 12 months each.
While these pre-pandemic purchases of vaccines may allow for a small number of high-risk individuals to receive an early jab - the creation, manufacturing, and deployment of a a strain-specific vaccine will likely take many months - meaning most will have to wait 6 to 12 months for a vaccine.
Unpopular as they might be, NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions like masks, social distancing, etc.) will once again become our first line of defense.
For more on pandemic vaccinations strategies and considerations, you may wish to revisit:
NPJ Vaccines: Modeling the Impact of Early Vaccination in an Influenza Pandemic in the United States
Preprint: Immune History Shapes Human Antibody Responses to H5N1 Influenza viruses
Referral: SCI AM - A Bird Flu Vaccine Might Come Too Late to Save Us from H5N1