A Humble beginning

Over the last couple of weeks, the Avian Flu has suddenly made the national news. I’ve been watching it for months, following its early outbreaks in Asia with interest, but now, with a cluster of human cases in Turkey, the threat seems all too real.

Right now, WHO (the World Health Organization) denies that there is Human to Human (H2H) transmission. It is, according to them, strictly a Bird to Human (B2H) vector. I don’t know. WHO has been accused of being slow to react, and there appear to have been cover-ups in China, and other Asian nations over the past couple of years, clouding the issue and masking the true number of victims. The Turkish officials claim they’ve done everything possible to contain the outbreak, but rumors of disarray and deceit regarding their response abound.

Two weeks ago, the US government quietly unveiled a website, www.pandemicflu.gov , where they urged Americans to stock up on food and medicine in preparation of a possible pandemic. Still, no high profile announcements by government officials. Where is the Surgeon General? Or the President? If this is a real and imminent threat, why are there no public service announcements running on every TV channel?

It feels like the government doesn’t want to cause a panic, but wants to be able to say they warned us if the worst happens. Yesterday, the state of California unveiled its pandemic flu `plan’. It stresses the need for people to take care of their own in their homes, and not to depend on hospitals. It also says people should stock up on supplies.

But it doesn’t say for how long!

Newspapers are saying 2 weeks. But that, on its face, seems ridiculous. The last great pandemic was in 1918 . . . it lasted 2 years, and killed tens of millions. The exact number is unknown.

Last year’s Hurricane Katrina, which destroyed New Orleans and much of the Mississippi coastline, proved how inefficient the Federal government is at handling a large, but localized disaster. How will they cope with a global pandemic? Not well, I fear.

The Internet is the best, and probably the worst, source of information. In recent weeks I’ve joined several Avian Flu websites, and have kept up with the constant flow of information, and misinformation on the subject. Fear, skepticism, and outright paranoia abound. The news media, late in covering the situation, seems to get things wrong a lot, and that simply feeds the panic and suspicion.

A few people are stocking up, preparing for a pandemic. But for the vast majority of Americans, this is simply not on their radar screens. They watch TV, argue politics, work at their jobs, and raise their families in blissful ignorance. Who will win American Idol this year is far more important than a possible pandemic.

I, of course, don’t know if the threat is real, or overblown. Pandemics have happened before, and they will surely happen again. And the world seems more vulnerable today than ever before. Modern Medicine, for all its advances, seems incapable of handling this sort of disaster. Anti-viral drugs are seen as being largely ineffective, and in short supply. A vaccine? Well, right now, there isn’t one. Treatment will be, for most of us, no better than in 1918.

The biggest problem today is knowing what to believe. Who (not WHO) to trust. The stakes are enormous, and many stand to profit or lose heavily in a pandemic. Quack cures are beginning to show up on the Internet, and with the lack of a real medical arsenal to fight this disease, I fear many will waste time, money, and possibly endanger their lives by resorting to them.

Among `true believers’, those that are certain a pandemic is just around the corner, many are planning on isolating themselves in their homes, or heading for the hills, preparing to survive Armageddon. A small minority of the population, granted, they are stockpiling food, medicine, and even weapons to last a year or longer. They believe isolation, and self-sufficiency, are the only way to survive.

If the pandemic threat is real, and imminent, then I am woefully unprepared. My living situation, my health, and my finances all leave me vulnerable. There is, hopefully, still time to prepare. But how much preparation is warranted, and how feasible it is to even attempt, is hard to know.

Can one realistically barricade themselves in their home for months on end? And if they could, is that really a protection against a pandemic? I suppose, for those living in the country, with land, and a garden, and a cellar full of supplies, it might work. But most of us do not live in the country. We live in cities, or communities, and have families and friends. Do we abandon those ties completely? If it becomes every man (or family) for themselves, what then will be our legacy?

The questions here are moral, ethical, and logistical. And there are no easy answers.

The format of this blog will be freeform. Basically, I will proffer whatever I’m thinking on the subject on any given day. I will post news stories of interest. Even rumors. This is not a news site. It’s about how the world is coping with the flu threat. Internationally, nationally, and in my little corner of the world.

My blog. My rules. If you don’t like it. Don’t read it. I’m not squarely in the camp of `We’re all gonna die!” nor am I a skeptic. I honestly don’t know what is going to happen.

For what its worth, along the way I will try to give my analysis of the news and rumors, along with my preparations.

All I can say is, it should be an interesting ride.