Poultry Sci & Mgt: Partial Protection of Commercial H5 Avian Influenza Vaccines to clade 2.3.4·4b H5N1 and H5N8 Avian Influenza Infections in Chickens

Poultry Vaccination - Photo Credit OIE

#19,327

Nearly 14 years ago, in Egypt: A Paltry Poultry Vaccine, we looked at an analysis by the researchers from the Virology department at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital - that studied the effectiveness of six commercially available H5 poultry vaccines then deployed in Egypt.

They reported - out of the 6 vaccines tested - only one (based on a locally acquired H5N1 seed virus) actually appeared to offer genuine protection.

This was at a time when H5 vaccination was only utilized by a handful of countries (primarily China, Indonesia, Egypt, and Vietnam), and the OIE (now WOAH) routinely warned that vaccination of poultry `. . . cannot be considered a long-term solution to combating the avian flu virus'.

The authors of this study urged: 

In light of our findings, we recommend that the H5N1 prevention and control strategy in Egypt be updated and reinforced. Special consideration should be given to the vaccination strategy, and the use of vaccines based on currently circulating viruses is advisable.

Fast-forward 6 years (2018) and the St. Jude research team revisited Egypt's poultry vaccination program (see Sci. Reports: Efficacy Of AI Vaccines Against The H5N8 Virus in Egypt), and found many of the same problems persisted. 

They wrote:

Our results indicate that most of the commercial poultry H5 vaccines used in the present study were ineffective because the seed viruses in these vaccines are genetically distinct from the H5N8 viruses currently circulating in Egypt.

Although some of the commercial vaccines protected chickens from mortality, they failed to prevent chickens from shedding the virus. Accordingly, we recommend updating and reinforcing the H5N8 prevention and control strategies in Egypt. The vaccination strategy should be reconsidered based on currently circulating viruses.

While the reduced mortality among poultry may have seemed like a `win' for farmers, theses avian flu viruses could continue to spread - often unnoticed - due to the `masking' of symptoms by the vaccine.

Of course, Egypt wasn't alone in the continued use of older, mismatched, poultry vaccines.  Earlier in 2018, in PLoS One: Effectiveness of HPAI H5N1 Vaccination in Poultry - Indonesia, we looked at an assessment of that country's poultry vaccination campaign. 

HPAI vaccination, intensively applied in Sector 3 layers in Indonesia, had highly variable outcome, including vaccination failures and did not provide sufficiently long protective immunity in the majority of flocks. Indonesia adopted HPAI vaccination in 2004 with the aim of reducing the incidence of H5N1 infections in poultry, with the ultimate objective of achieving eradication of the virus.

The concern is that vaccine mismatches, and/or poor or inconsistent application, can allow avian flu to spread silently among flocks, and may allow AI viruses to continue to reassort and evolve, potentially leading to the emergence of new variants of avian flu.

 A few earlier blogs addressing those concerns include:

Subclinical Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection among Vaccinated Chickens, China.

Study: Recombinant H5N2 Avian Influenza Virus Strains In Vaccinated Chickens

EID Journal: Subclinical HPAI In Vaccinated Poultry – China

While there have certainly been successful avian flu vaccination campaigns (see EID Journal: China's H5+H7 Poultry Vaccination Program, Guangdong 2017-18), vaccines must be continually updated - and flocks tested for breakthrough infections - in order to remain successful.  

In 2025, in NPJ Vaccines: Impact of Inactivated Vaccine on Transmission and Evolution of H9N2 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens, we saw evidence that not only had inactivated vaccines failed to prevent - or even reduce - LPAI H9N2 in China's poultry, they may have driven viral evolution (including mammalian adaptations).

None of this is to suggest that an effective poultry vaccine campaign can't be mounted, or effectively maintained.  But it does require more than just a `vaccinate & forget' strategy. 

All of which brings us to a new study which finds that despite the introduction of newer vaccine formulations, many of the earlier concerns about Egypt's vaccination program persist.  I've only posted the Abstract, and some excerpts, so follow the link to read it in its entirety. 

I'll have a bit more after the break. 

Partial protection of commercial H5 avian influenza vaccines to clade 2.3.4·4b H5N1 and H5N8 avian influenza infections in chickens

Research
Open access
Published: 08 September 2026
Volume 3, article number 22 (2026)

Download PDF

Ahmed El Taweel, Mokhtar Gomaa, Yassmin Moatasim, Omnia Kutkat, Mina Nabil Kamel, Mohamed El Sayes, Mohamed GabAllah, Mohamed Ahmed Ali, Ghazi Kayali & Rabeh El-Shesheny

Abstract

Background

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) continue to cause substantial economic losses to the poultry industry and pose a significant burden on global public health systems. The increasing diversity and geographical spread of different subtypes of influenza viruses in poultry populations increases the risk for reassortment events and the emergence of novel strains. Vaccination remains a key strategy for preventing influenza infection and its complications, especially high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), as it can reduce morbidity, mortality, and viral transmission.

However, vaccine effectiveness is closely tied to the antigenic match between vaccine strains and circulating viruses. In this study, we tested six commonly used commercial poultry H5 vaccines in Egypt to evaluate mortality, and virus shedding following experimental infection of specific pathogen free chickens with clade 2.3.4·4b H5N1 and H5N8 HPAI viruses.

Results

Our results showed that most of the tested vaccines provided detectable antibody titers and protected against mortality but were not able to control virus shedding. ValleyVac vaccines induced high HI titers (up to 9 log2) against recent clade 2.3.4·4b A(H5N1) and A(H5N8) strains, while Zoetis and Egy-flu R 2-in-1 induced lower HI titers (<6 log2). Although some of the commercial vaccines did not elicit considerable HI titers, vaccines provided 71%–100% protection against clade 2.3.4·4b viruses. Importantly, virus titers were detected till seven days post-infection (dpi). This incomplete protection is likely due to genetic and antigenic mismatches between the vaccine seed strains and the H5N1 and H5N8 viruses detected in Egypt.

Conclusions

These results highlight the urgent need to revise H5Nx prevention and control strategies in Egypt and update vaccine seed strains to reflect currently circulating HPAI viruses.

(SNIP)

The prolonged use of suboptimal vaccines or inadequate vaccination programs may contribute to the selection of antigenic escape mutants through immune pressure, potentially reducing vaccine effectiveness.

        (SNIP)

In summary, our data indicate that vaccines designed on strains that differ from circulating strains are not able to provide optimal protection. Although an immune response was elicited and survival rates were high, viral shedding continued. This indicates that the use of those vaccines will reduce morbidity and mortality but will allow virus transmission and potentially the emergence of vaccine escape mutants.

Mass vaccination remains a crucial component of a multifaceted approach aimed at preventing AIV illness and its spread in poultry. The ongoing threat of an AIV pandemic highlights the need to design novel vaccines that are easier to manufacture, more streamlined, and capable of inducing better and broader immune protection against emerging strains.

 

        (Continue . . . )

 

These, and other (often trade related) concerns - are why many countries (including the United States, Canada and the UK) have yet to authorize the use of HPAI poultry vaccines, although many are studying the matter (see UK Defra Announces New Avian Influenza Vaccine Trials Begin in UK).

But as HPAI increases its presence in the environment -  and continues to spill over into livestock - the need for well mounted vaccination campaigns only increases. 

We've discussed some of the ongoing biosecurity measures that would be required to mount a safe and effective poultry vaccination campaign (see UK Joint Taskforce Policy Paper: Vaccination of Birds Against HPAIV (bird flu)), including:

• Most captive birds would likely require more than one vaccination over their lifetime, and regular testing that can differentiate infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA) would be needed to prevent `subclinical spread' of the virus. 
•  Culling and/or quarantine would still be needed for `breakthrough' infections
• A different vaccine, schedule and testing regimen would likely be required for non-avian livestock.
• And vaccine seed viruses would have to be regularly updated to match circulating strains

None of this would be cheap or easy, but - given the growing endemicity of the H5Nx virus - vaccination may be our best option going forward.

But only if we take the time and effort to do it right. 

Pathogen's Progress

H5 Affected States & Provinces June 2015

#19,326

Prior to 2021, North America had only had one brush with the Asian-origin HPAI H5 virus; a reassorted H5N8 subtype which appeared in South Korea in January of 2014 before beginning a world tour. 

It crossed the north Pacific - carried by migratory birds - the following fall, arriving in the Pacific Northwest in December 2014, sparking the first HPAI H5 epizootic in the United States and Canada (see map above).

That H5Nx virus, however, disappeared completely the following summer, apparently still ill-suited for long-term carriage by wild and migratory birds (see PNAS: The Enigma Of Disappearing HPAI H5 In North American Migratory Waterfowl).

That limitation would evaporate in the summer of 2016 when H5N8 reassorted into a far more robust threat (probably in China or Siberia) - arriving in Europe in October - and sparking their biggest (at that time) epizootic on record. EID Journal: Reassorted HPAI H5N8 Clade 2.3.4.4. - Germany 2016). 

This new H5N8 was not only deadlier to some bird species, it was more easily carried by others, increasing its range and impact dramatically over the next 6 months.  

We also saw this virus spin off several short-lived subtypes, including H5N5, H5N3, and H5N9. 

Over the winter of 2016-17, this H5N8 virus spread from Europe, into the Middle East, and then North Africa. By late spring, 2017, it had crossed the equator for the first time,  and set up shop in South Africa, making it the most successfully disseminated HPAI H5 virus we'd seen.

A European H5N6 briefly appeared in 2018, but H5N8 held on until a new, reassorted H5N1 virus appeared in Europe in 2020, and began to supplant H5N8. 

Unlike previous H5Nx incarnations, this new H5N1 showed an increased affinity for infecting mammals, and a much wider avian host range (see DEFRA: The Unprecedented `Order Shift' In Wild Bird H5N1 Positives In Europe & The UK).

By 2022 this `new and improved' H5N1 virus had crossed both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, spreading first to North America, followed by South America, the Antarctic, and most recently (2026) into Australia/New Zealand.   

While avian flu activity still decreased during the hotter months, no longer did HPAI H5 disappear completely each summer. It could be maintained (at low levels) in local birds, livestock, small mammals, and likely even the environment. 

All of which makes the HPAI H5 threat of today far different from what it was even a decade ago. The H5N1 virus of today has expanded not only its geographic range, but its host range as well.  

And it isn't done evolving. 

Since its arrival in 2021, the H5Nx virus has diversified into more than 100 distinct genotypes in North America alone, with scores of others emerging around the globe.  A few notable North American examples include:

• In late 2023 a new B3.13 genotype emerged that could efficiently infect dairy cattle while mildly infecting dozens of humans

• Last fall we saw 3 new genotypes emerge (D1.1, D1.2, D1.3), with D1.1 producing more severe illness in humans. 

• In October 2024 Canada experienced a multi-farm outbreak of emerging N1 genotype of H5N1 that was highly resistant to NAI antivirals (carrying the H275Y mutation)

These variants illustrate just how quickly (and dramatically) the avian `fluscape' can change, and we generally see those changes in the fall, when migratory birds - which spent their summers in their high latitude roosting areas - return. 

A 2016 study (see Sci Repts.: Southward Autumn Migration Of Waterfowl Facilitates Transmission Of HPAI H5N1), suggests that waterfowl pick up new HPAI viruses in the spring (likely from poultry or terrestrial birds) on their northbound trip to their summer breeding spots - where they spread and potentially evolve - and then redistribute them on their southbound journey the following fall.

Our own Arctic Refuge, where more than 200 bird species spend their summers, serves as a central hub, and funnels migratory birds south via all four North American Flyways.

While this fall's HPAI viruses could be similar to what we saw last year - they might include new, potentially game-changing, genotypes - which could either increase or decrease their threat.

Evolution is a double-edged sword, and what it adds it can also take away. But the trajectory of H5N1 over the past 4+ years has been towards more mammalian adaptation, and increased host range.  

We've also seen reports of H5N5 activity above the Arctic Circle (see Norwegian Veterinary Institute Reports Another HPAI H5N5 Infected Polar Bear on Svalbard Island), and H5N5 claimed the life of a Washington state bird keeper last fall. 

The APPA estimates `Eleven (11) million U.S. households own backyard chickens (a 28% increase from 2023)', yet a recent survey (see MMWR: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding Avian Influenza Among Owners of Backyard Flocks) found significant gaps in their knowledge of dealing with avian flu.

While no one can predict with any confidence what HPAI will look like later this fall, the one thing we can be sure of is the 2026 fall southbound migration has already begun, and the time to prepare for its arrival grows shorter with every passing day. 

And if recent history is any guide, we should be preparing for additional surprises. 

CDC Update: Flu Levels Remain Low, But COVID Increasing Across the U.S.

 
          Last Week                               This Week

#19,325

Last week, after a summer of low COVID activity reported in the United States, we looked at Low But Increasing COVID reports across the nation.  At that time, wastewater testing in 8 states indicated increased activity, while this week (see graphic above) the number of states has risen to 11. 

At the same time, the percentage of positive tests for COVID has jumped from 5.3 last week to 6.2 this week. Still low, but edging higher. 

The CDC's weekly summary reads:

Testing, and reporting, of COVID cases remain low, and so the CDC's Nowcast is unable provide us with much in the way of details on this summer's variants.

Last month the FDA approved a new JN.1 lineage XFG subvariant COVID vaccine (see CIDRAP FDA approves new COVID vaccines) which should be available later this fall.

Currently, influenza and RSV are reportedly at very low levels (see chart below), but with fall approaching, those numbers are expected to rise in the months ahead. 

As reported a little over a week ago (see Japan MHLW Reports Unusually Early Start to the Fall Flu Season) a few countries in the Northern Hemisphere are already reporting substantial flu, even as the virus continues in the Southern Hemisphere. 

Admittedly, every flu season is different, and it is not unusual to see vastly different flu seasons in different parts of the world. So flu's early arrival in Japan may not be a harbinger for North America or Europe.

This year's fall flu vaccines have been updated to reflect recent antigenic changes observed in all 3 seasonal flu types (see WHO Recommendations for Influenza Vaccine Composition for the 2026-2027 Northern Hemisphere Influenza Season).

While no flu vaccine can promise 100% protection, it – along with practicing good flu hygiene (washing hands, wearing face masks in crowded indoor spaces, covering coughs, & staying home if sick) – remains your best strategy for avoiding the flu and staying healthy this winter.

For some more reasons to consider getting the flu vaccine, you may wish to revisit:

Eurosurveillance: Influenza Vaccination Attenuates Acute Myocardial Infarction and Stroke Risk Following Influenza Infection

Nature: Influenza Vaccination & Major Cardiovascular Risk: a Systematic Review & Meta-Analysis

The Lancet: Influenza Vaccine to Reduce Adverse Vascular Events in Patients with Heart Failure

AHA: Study Shows Flu Shots Reduce Deaths From Heart Failure

#NPM26: Preparing For An El Niño Winter

Credit NOAA

Note: This is the 5th day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of NPM26, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

#19,324

Two years ago I was forced to evacuate (for the 3rd time in 10 years) from my west-central Florida home due to the approach of hurricane Milton, which passed 50-60 miles to my south. 

While I live roughly 40 miles inland, and at a high (for Florida) elevation, we saw prolonged hurricane force winds, massive tree damage, and - thanks to 14" of rain in a few hours - a 500 year-flood.

It took 4 days for the water to recede enough for me to return home. Luckily I had a `disaster buddy' who took me and my cat in for the duration. I was lucky, my home wasn't flooded, although some only a hundred yards away were. 

It took 4 days to get power back on, and a week to get internet (see Signs of Life).  While my home took substantial wind damage, it was inland flooding that caused the worst damage to my community. 

Now, imagine that sort of rain dump happening - perhaps repeatedly - this winter in California.  That's the growing concern for state officials (see ABC-7 News  'Super El Niño' strengthens, triggering preparations for possible flooding in LA County).

Depending on the intensity, duration, and frequency of such storms, it could even lead to an ARkStorm event, which we first looked at 15 years ago in ARkStorm: California’s other "Big One".

While it sounds like the plot from a bad made-for-cable Sci Fi film, this actually comes from the USGS Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) analysis of a winter storm scenario with historical precedence.

From the USGS website: 

Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years.

USGS Video On ARkStorm

We returned to this topic in 2022's California's ARkStorm Scenario Revisited, after the USGS released an updated assessment; one that suggested that as the climate grows hotter and dryer, it increases the odds of seeing another catastrophic ARkStorm event. 

Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood
XINGYING HUANG AND DANIEL L. SWAIN 
SCIENCE ADVANCES
12 Aug 2022
Vol 8, Issue 32
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abq0995

Abstract

Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of “plausible worst case scenario” extreme storm sequences capable of giving rise to “megaflood” conditions using a combination of climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling.

Using the data from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we find that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due to continued warming. We further find that runoff in the future extreme storm scenario is 200 to 400% greater than historical values in the Sierra Nevada because of increased precipitation rates and decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, as well as broader implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation activities.

       (Continue . . . )

This is an extreme scenario - and remains a low probability event despite this winter's El Niño - but even something less severe could cause considerable damage, and potentially loss of life. 

So, the question is, how ready are you and your family for severe weather this winter?  The LA County website  advises:

LA County is preparing its flood control and emergency response systems now. Crews are inspecting and maintaining dams, debris basins, channels, storm drains, and pump stations; monitoring burn areas, hillsides, and other areas at risk of flooding and debris flows; and preparing for evacuations, emergency shelter, and other storm response. County teams are also preparing to assist people experiencing homelessness, older adults, and others who may need additional help during severe weather.

Here’s what residents can do now:

• Sign up for emergency alerts: Go to alert.lacounty.gov to receive emergency notifications, including evacuation warnings and orders.
• Know the risks where you live: If you are near a hillside, canyon, recent burn area, or area that can flood, learn your flood and mudflow risk before a storm.
• Make an evacuation plan: Know where you will go and how you will get there if you need to leave quickly.
• Have supplies ready: Keep enough food, water, medications, and other essentials for up to 10 days.
• Prepare your home: Clear gutters, downspouts, and storm drains, fix roof leaks, and get sandbags before heavy rain is in the forecast.
• Consider flood insurance: Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Flood insurance is separate and can take at least 30 days to go into effect.
• Need help with mud or debris flow risk? Call LA County Public Works at 1-800-933-0930 to speak with an engineer.
• Know someone experiencing homelessness who needs help? Visit homeless.lacounty.gov/get-help/

But it isn't just California that could be impacted by a strong El Niño.  

Here in Florida - where we are enjoying the quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season in recent memory - we've a history of seeing strong winter storms during El Niño years, including the tornado outbreak of 1998 which killed 42 people. 

Predicting exactly where unusual or severe weather will occur this winter due to El Niño is impossible, but generally, the jet stream across the United States shifts storm tracks to the southern tier of states. 

While this doesn't guarantee that other areas will get a free ride this winter, it does suggest that California may be unusually wet, and ice storms and blizzards may be more likely to develop across the deep south this coming winter. 

Exactly where that may happen is unknowable, but five years ago (Feb 2021) 3 successive winter storms swept across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, causing the worst collapse of the Texas energy grid on record (see Texas: The Latest - But Not The Last - Grid Down Crisis).

At least 4.5 million homes were without power during a week of bitter winter temperatures, resulting in hundreds of deaths and tens of billions of dollars of damage (see City of Austin & Travis County 2021 WINTER STORM URI AFTER-ACTION REVIEW).

While I can't tell you where the next natural disaster will strike, or how bad it will be, being prepared for whatever comes is your best defense. 

So, if the grid goes down, or flood waters rise, or the ground begins to shake . . . do you already have?

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal.
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

If not, you've got some important work to do.  A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov.

#NatlPrep: 75% of Americans At Risk Of Experiencing A Damaging Earthquake

Note: This is the 4th day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of NPM26, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

#19,323

Over the past 3 months, in addition to hundreds of mild-to-moderate earthquakes, the world has seen 3 devastating seismic events:

• In early June, the Philippines was struck by a 7.8 quake offshore of Mindanao, killing more than 100 people, and damaging more than 100 thousand homes.

• Two weeks later Venezuela was struck by twin quakes (7.2 and 7.5) - 39 seconds apart - killing more than 6500 people, and destroying tens of thousands of buildings. 

• Three weeks after that (August 10th) Colombia was hit by a 7.4 quake, killing > 330 people, and causing massive infrastructure collapse. 

While we like to think that these sorts of events can't happen here in the United States, Canada, or Europe, the truth is more sobering.  

In 2006 the USGS calculated that earthquakes posed a significant risk to 75 million Americans living in 39 States. A 2015 study, published in the journal Earthquake Spectra, nearly doubled – to 143 million - the number of Americans who live or work in areas susceptible to potentially damaging ground shaking (see USGS: Nearly Half Of U.S. Population Exposed to Potentially Damaging Earthquakes).

In January of 2024 the USGS unveiled a new seismic risk map (see top of blog), which increased the percentage of the population at risk of experiencing a damaging earthquake to nearly 75% (roughly 240 million people).

While most people immediately think of California and the `big one', the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), the Pacific Northwest (Cascadia fault), coastal South Carolina, Alaska and Hawaii, and even New York City and parts of New England are at risk of seeing significant seismic activity.

Additionally, there are nearly a dozen `very high risk' volcanoes in the continental US (4 in Washington, 4 in Oregon & 3 in California), along dozens of `lesser' threats. While earthquake damage is generally localized, volcanic eruptions can affect property and populations thousands of miles away.

Over the past 100+ years the United States (excluding Alaska & Hawaii) has experienced a `seismic drought', with relatively few big quakes or volcanic eruptions.  As a result, most people assume the next `big one' won't happen in their lifetimes. 

But all droughts end eventually.

Every year since 2009 I've promoted Shakeout.org's safety campaign, and I strongly urge anyone who lives in any seismically active region to take part. 

After the shaking stops, you'll have to find ways to cope with the aftermath. 

 

While the government will send help, you could find yourself pretty much on your own for several days (or longer) and living in less than comfortable conditions for weeks (assuming your home is still habitable).

For starters - and as a bare minimum - every household should have a disaster plan, a good first aid kit (and the knowledge to use it), an emergency battery operated NWS weather radio, and emergency supplies to last a minimum of 72 hours during a disaster.

While 72 hours is an admirable start, having previously lived very near the New Madrid fault, and now living in hurricane country, I wouldn't feel comfortable stopping there.

Many agencies and organizations in the U.S. recommend that households work towards having a 10-to-14 day supply of food, water, and emergency supplies on hand, which I consider far more prudent.

Other steps to consider include setting up emergency meeting places, out-of-state contacts, and creating individual wallet information cards (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

For more on earthquake preparedness, both here in the United States, and around the world, you may wish to revisit:

Japan's Earthquake Preparedness Messaging - Tokyo's X Day

Dr. Lucy Jones: `Imagine America Without Los Angeles’

California Quakes : Concrete Concerns

Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake

Seasonal Flu Signals From New Zealand, Australia & Japan

Credit CDC

#19,322

A week ago, in Japan MHLW Reports Unusually Early Start to the Fall Flu Season, we saw Japan's earliest start to their flu season since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. The Ministry of Health's most recent (Sept 4th) update indicates that flu reports have jumped 60% since last week's figures were announced, with the highest rates reported in Okinawa Prefecture, followed by Iwate Prefecture, and Niigata Prefecture.

According to media reports today, the deployment of this year's seasonal flu vaccine (scheduled for late September) may begin for the elderly as early as this week. 

 
Meanwhile, in New Zealand, at a time when the Southern Hemisphere's flu season is usually winding down, the PHF Science website reports a late season surge in hospitalizations for (mostly) influenza. 

Most hospitalized (see chart below) are children aged 0-4 and the elderly (65+). 

Queensland, Australia is reporting a similar late-season surge (see chart below), although it has yet to reach the heights of last year's flu epidemic.

 

While none of this is necessarily predictive of the broader Northern Hemisphere flu season ahead, it is worth noting that after the late arrival last year of a `drifted' subclade K H3N2 virus, and recent antigenic changes observed in both H1N1 and Influenza B, the WHO has recommended changes to all 3 components of the 2026-2027 flu vaccine.

Overview

For vaccines for use in the 2026-2027 northern hemisphere influenza season, WHO recommends the following:

Egg-based vaccines

• an A/Missouri/11/2025 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;

• an A/Darwin/1454/2025 (H3N2)-like virus; and

• a B/Tokyo/EIS13-175/2025 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus.


Cell culture-, recombinant protein- or nucleic acid-based vaccines

• an A/Missouri/11/2025 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;

• an A/Darwin/1415/2025 (H3N2)-like virus; and

• a B/Pennsylvania/14/2025 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus.

The 2026 Southern Hemisphere vaccine already had the recommended updated H1N1 component, but retained the older strains against H3N2 and Influenza B.

Admittedly, seasonal flu is notoriously unpredictable - and a mild epidemic is always possible - but these early signals are worth noting. 

Sadly, seasonal flu vaccine uptake in the United States peaked in 2019, and has registered a slow, but steady decline since.

Pandemic fatigue, plus growing anti-vaccination sentiment, and admittedly `hit-or-miss' protection against influenza infection have all had an impact.  

While I'm not particularly hopeful - with antigenic changes in all 3 flu strains expected to circulate this winter - this would be a good year to see this trend reversed.  

For my part, I'll be rolling up my sleeve later this month, and plan to don face masks when in crowded indoor public spaces and use copious amounts of hand sanitizer.  

At my age, I figure I need every advantage I can get.