Note: I’ve returned home to some desktop computer problems, and am relegated to using my netbook until I can sort them out.
# 4955
Even after more than a week of media reports, it isn’t at all clear whether any of the more than 2 dozen people currently under medical observation from South Sulawesi, Indonesia are infected with the H5N1 virus.
What we know (from various media reports) is that in the wake of a large die off of poultry in the region from the H5N1 virus, over the last week 25-30 people have reported fevers and 4 or 5 appear to have been hospitalized (see Indonesia Still Simmering).
Laboratory tests have not been publically released, and it is certainly possible (perhaps even likely) that many of these `suspect’ cases have something far more benign than bird flu, like seasonal flu.
That said, we’ve another report this morning – this time of a high school student from East Kalimantan (not South Sulawesi) who has been isolated as a bird flu suspect.
These next two items come from Ida at BFIC.
Balikpapan, East Kalimantan ::: A high-school student isolated as bird flu suspect
Posted by Ida on October 4, 2010
Balikpapan – A high-school student, with initial Ha (15 years old), from Gunung Bakaran Kelurahan Sepinggan Balikpapan Selatan, is being isolated at Karamunting room, Kanujoso Djatiwibowo hospital in Balikpapan, Sunday (3/10).
Ha was admitted to hospital because of developing high fever since Saturday (2/10). At the same moment, numbers of chicken reared in Ha’s house died with unknown cause.
(Continue . . . )
Late last week, BFIC also reported on a die off of chickens in this same region.
Balikpapan, East Kalimantan ::: Chickens death confirmed bird flu
Posted by Ida on September 30, 2010
Balikpapan – The cause of chickens’ death in Kelurahan Manggar, Balikpapan Timur, East Kalimantan province is identified of bird flu H5N1 virus. Diagnosis was done through rapid test by of Agriculture, Marine and Fishery Service. Samples have been sent to Banjar Baru, South Kalimantan for confirmation.
While the full extend of the bird flu outbreak in South Sulawesi is difficult to gauge, this morning we have this report via Dutchy on FluTrackers that indicates more than 10,000 chickens have died so far.
MONDAY, 04 OCTOBER 2010 |
Already 10 111 Chicken Dead Bird Flu
PINRANG - Research Institute for Animal Health Big Maros claimed six of the 12 districts Pinrang positive was attacked by avian influenza (AI) is considered different from the facts on the ground. Until Sunday, October 3, bird flu has been found in eight districts.
Indonesia, like Egypt and China (and several other countries), relies heavily on vaccines to control outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry despite calls to move away from that strategy.
From Antara News, we get this report on a lack of H5N1 vaccines in the Pacitan district of East Java, and the fears that it may leave them open to an H5N1 outbreak.
Pacitan district runs out of bird flu vaccine
Monday, October 4, 2010 14:45 WIB | National
Pacitan, East Java (ANTARA News) - Pacitan district in East Java province has run out of bird flu vaccine needed to anticipation bird flu outbreaks.
"We have run out of bird flu vaccine because this year we only had 225,000 dosages whereas our total need is 2 million dosages per year," local head of department of animal health in food crops and livestock Fatkhurrozi said here on Monday.
Dr. C.A. Nidom, whose name has appeared often in this blog, was quoted last year in Poultry Indonesia as saying:
Poultry Indonesia Printing Edition, March 2009
(excerpts)
Chairul Anwar Nidom, a virologist with the Tropical Disease Centre at Airlangga University in Surabaya, said a common policy on bird flu was lacking among government agencies, making controlling the disease more difficult.
Nidom criticized the government’s policy of vaccinating poultry rather than culling, believing that it masks the virus, and ultimately contributes to its mutation.
In 2009 the OIE (World Organization For Animal Health) reaffirmed their long-standing position that vaccination of poultry cannot be considered a long-term solution to combating the avian flu virus.
In Avian influenza and vaccination: what is the scientific recommendation?, the OIE reiterates their strong recommendation that humane culling be employed to control avian influenza, and advising that vaccines should only be used as a temporary measure.
One of the concerns is that vaccines – as they lose their effectiveness – could mask the symptoms of bird flu in poultry, but still allow the virus to spread.
But for countries where poultry represents a large part of their food security, and where small holdings and backyard chickens are common, culling can be politically and economically a difficult policy to maintain.
Indonesia and Egypt appear to have the greatest incidence of bird flu outbreaks in the world today, but exactly how many outbreaks occur in places like China, North Korea, and some parts of Asia and Africa are unknown.
Sporadic human infections from the H5N1 virus continue to be reported in places where the virus is endemic and the World Health Organization continues to show us in a Pre-Pandemic Phase III watch for this virus.
While the virus has yet to adapt well enough to human hosts to transmit effectively between people, scientists still worry that the virus could mutate into a pandemic strain someday.
And so we continue to monitor outbreaks like the ones listed above.
