Thursday, December 09, 2010

OCHA: The Ugandan Outbreak By The Numbers

 

 

# 5131

 

 

Two days ago, the tentative diagnosis for the `mystery’ disease affecting parts of Uganda was announced to be pneumonic plague (see Uganda Outbreak Identified As Plague: Officials).

 

Today, officials seem to be backing away from that diagnosis, with this story dated yesterday appearing on the New Vision website.

 

 

Northern disease still a mystery

Wednesday, 8th December, 2010

 

By Jimmy Wokorach-Oboi
and Taddeo Bwambale

A new team of health experts from the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is expected in Uganda tomorrow to intensify the fight against a mysterious illness that has hit at least six districts in northern and north-eastern Uganda.

The team is to carry out more tests to determine the cause of the outbreak, which has claimed about 38 lives since it was first reported in November.

CDC team leader, Jeffrey Miller yesterday said tests done at the CDC and Uganda Virus Research Institute joint laboratory in Arua district ruled out plague.

(Continue . . . )

 

While it may not solve the mystery, today we’ve a detailed map showing the locations, numbers of cases, CFR (case fatality rate), and symptomology from 3 separate locations compiled by OCHA and provided via ReliefWeb.

 

You can download the entire map at the link below.

 

 

Uganda: Un-diagnosed Disease Affected Areas & Cases - as of 06 Dec 2010

Map of 'Uganda%3A%20Un-diagnosed%20Disease%20Affected%20Areas%20%26%20Cases%20-%20as%20of%2006%20Dec%202010'

  • Date: 08 Dec 2010
  • Type: Complex Emergency
  • Keyword(s): Epidemic; Health
  • Format:

    map.pdfPDF *, 423 Kb

  • Source(s):
    - United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

 

Today’s map details 85 cases, and 30 fatalities – from three locations; Abim, Agago, and Kitgum.

 

Media reports have mentioned 38 fatalities, and more than 90 cases – but it is likely that all of the numbers we’ve seen are either incomplete or several days out of date. 

 

 

image

 

While the symptoms are diverse and confusing, some form of hemorrhage is being reported in the majority of cases to date.

 

You can also see considerable differences in symptomology between locations.

 

With no definitive diagnosis or test, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that some of those differences might be attributable to patients with some other illness being lumped into the `mystery disease’ group.

 

Outbreak reports, particularly from remote areas with limited resources, often contain a good deal of ambiguity.

 

 

Uganda symptom

 

 

Maps like these give us a unique view of the spread, and impact, of an outbreak.  We shall obviously await the outcome of the CDC’s testing with considerable interest.