Avian Flu Diary: Referral: A FluTrackers Commentary

# 5161

Over the past 24-36 hours we’ve been watching a number of confusing (well, to me anyway) media stories out of Egypt combining reports of both H1N1 and H5N1 influenza cases.

It certainly sounds like something is going on, but I don’t have a lot of confidence (yet) in the details of these reports (see Keeping One Eye On Egypt).

Machine translations are at best murky and convoluted, and sometimes border on the indecipherable. They can often provide us with early indications that something is amiss, but I tend not to put a lot of faith in their details.

The good news is, the newshounds on the flu forums continue to find, translate, and post these articles, while they and other forum members attempt to dissect and analyze them.

To that end, overnight Sharon Sanders Editor-in-Chief of FluTrackers has put together a terrific summary of recent (confirmed and suspected) H5N1 cases out of Egypt, along with some thoughts on the current situation there.

I’ve only posted the opening to a much longer analysis (with links to source material). Follow the link to read it in its entirety.

Commentary - December in Egypt - A/H1N1 and A/H5N1 Quandary

by The FluTrackers Team -

In December the influenza situation has intensified. There have been reports of confirmed and suspected cases of both A/H5N1 and A/H1N1 in humans. In addition, it appears that many poultry continue to be infected with A/H5N1 and this is a direct threat to humans who are in the vicinity.

In December we believe that there are 4 total H5N1 cases confirmed by the central government and/or governorate authorities:

#113 - 30 year old female, onset date November 28, 2010 - hospitalized December 1, 2010 - Gharbia governorate – Death

Governorate confirmed case- 30 year old male, onset date unknown, death reported on December 7, 2010 - Dakahlia governorate – Death

#114 - 25 year old female, onset date unknown at this time - Behiera governorate

#115 - 44 year old male, onset date unknown at this time - Dakahlia governorate Death

The case designated as "Governorate confirmed case" was confirmed by Dakahlia public health officials but has not been confirmed by the Egypt Ministry of Health (MOH) or by the World Health Organization.

Confusing this situation further, the Egyptian MOH fired the director of a hospital on December 16 for not reporting an H5N1 case. We do not know which case this is in reference to. It might be this case or an entirely new case that we have no information about.

In addition, an unnamed "medical source" reported 3 "confirmed" H5N1 cases in Sharqia Governorate yesterday but these cases have not been ratified by either the govenorate or Egyptian MOH. Tests are also pending for 2 suspected cases in Fayoum govenorate.

(Continue . . . )