2014 Atlantic hurricane outlook.
Download here (Credit:NOAA)
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With the caveat that it just takes one major landfalling storm in a populated region to make for an epic hurricane season, today NOAA announced their prediction for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.
First their statement, after which I’ll have a bit more.
NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season
El Niño expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of
tropical cyclonesMay 22, 2014
In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season.
The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer. El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.
The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
As a Floridian, I welcome any early indication that we might get off easy with this year’s hurricane season. But I also know that an average or even slow season can still produce one or more significant weather events.
1992 was such a year. Forecast to be a below average season, in fact, only 4 hurricanes and 3 tropical storms formed.
A slow year by any measure, and one that would have been eminently forgettable were it not for the first storm of that year –catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Andrew – which devastated a swath of South Florida and the Bahamas before heading to Louisiana.
While there is genuine science behind these predictions – as we saw last year – sometimes they miss the mark badly. Much of this year’s forecast will depend on the the timing and the strength of the El Nino building in the Pacific.
Last year was forecast to be an above average Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA predicting 13 to 20 named storms and 7 to 11 hurricanes . . . yet in the end, only two hurricanes formed.
All of which is a good reason to prepare this year (and every year) as if a storm is all but guaranteed.
By the time you know a storm is targeting your area, it can be difficult to take all the steps necessary to safeguard lives and property. Which is why all next week we’ll be looking at Hurricane Preparedness Week.
Because, as the residents who lived in South Florida back in 1992 can attest . . . . one storm is more than enough to seriously impact your life.
