Sunday, June 14, 2015

Watching The Tropics

# 10,206

The last thing the residents of Texas need right now is another major rain event, nevertheless the tropics are poised to deliver exactly that sometime next week as a disturbance moves off the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.

This morning's Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center reads:

800 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 
1. A sharp trough of surface low pressure across the Yucatan Peninsula, in combination with an upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms over portions of Guatemala, Belize, the Yucatan, and adjacent waters.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for some development over the next day or two as the system moves northwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.  
Heavy rains are expected to continue over these areas today, along with winds to near gale force over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Whether or not this system achieves storm status, as we discussed a couple of weeks ago in Hurricane Preparedness - Inland Flooding , heavy rains - often well removed from where these storms come ashore - are often the biggest killers.

Now is a good time to review your hurricane preparedness plans and preparations  to ensure you and your family are ready for whatever waltzes up out of the tropics.

When it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.

If you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so.

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