Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Saudi MOH Announces 1 Primary MERS Case In Medinah

# 10,882

For the second day running the Saudi MOH has announced a primary MERS case (with camel contact), this time from Medinah.

As the chart below indicated, we've seen spikes in Saudi MERS cases occur at several different times of the year, with considerable variation between 2014 and 2015.  Most of these large spikes have been driven by major nosocomial outbreaks.

It has been theorized that the camel calving season (Nov-Feb) may exacerbate the spread of the virus among immunologically naive young camels (see EID Journal: MERS Coronavirus In A Saudi Dromedary Herd), and may increase the risk of exposure to humans during the spring.
The data right now is mixed, and inconclusive, with large outbreaks occurring in the spring and late summer, and smaller surges recorded in the winter and late fall.  

As Dr. Ian Mackay wrote last month in his VDU blog:

The season of the mainly whenever the infection control fails

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