Slow moving and powerful Hurricane Matthew has begun its right hand turn and is now targeting the slot between Jamaica and Haiti, where it is likely to bring severe damage - particularly to the island of Hispaniola - over the next couple of days.
Eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas are also in the path, but beyond that, the models are too `iffy' to say whether Florida or the Atlantic Seaboard are at risk.
There are literally dozens of hurricane computer models which are updated every 6 hours, and they often disagree as to the direction, speed, and intensity of these storms.
What they do agree upon (at least today) is a generally northerly track, and that the storm should remain a strong hurricane well into the coming week.
NOAA and the National Weather Service posted the following Key Messages this morning based on the 5am advisory.
While the future course of Matthew is far from certain, if you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so. You'll find additional preparedness information in my Hurricane Preparedness 2016 post from last May.
When it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
And if you are on Twitter, you'll want to follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.