Friday, June 16, 2017

An Early Reminder The Atlantic Tropical Season Has Begun


Although it is quite early into the 2017 Altantic Hurricane season, already we've two areas to watch for slow development over the next 5 days.  This morning's unusually active  Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center follows:


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.  Additional slowdevelopment is possible during the next few days while the wavemoves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or two.  Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Beven
While major storms are rare this early in the summer, as we saw two weeks ago in Hurricane Season Begins - June Climatology, they are not unheard of.  Just ask anyone who went thru Audrey in 1957, Agnes in 1972, or Allison in 2001.
This year's forecast, released late last month by NOAA (see 2017 Tropical Outlook: Above Normal Hurricane Season Expected) calls for between 11 and 17 named storms.  How many of those might impact the United States, and of what severity, is unknown.
With the weekend ahead, and some active areas to watch, now is a good time to pay a visit to NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation Hurricane Preparedness Week 2017 web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

While this blog, and many other internet sources, will cover this year's hurricane season your primary source of information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. 
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.

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