Wednesday, July 05, 2017

July Tropical Climatology & An Area To Watch

July 5th 5-Day Tropical Outlook - NHC


In an average Atlantic tropical season, we don't normally see our first named storm until July 9th (see chart below) - but this year we are already far ahead of that curve - and the NHC believes  there's an 80% chance we'll see our 4th tropical storm of the season by then.

Should that happen, this 4th storm will be named Don.  For now, this proto-storm doesn't pose any threat to land and the models aren't terribly impressive.  But of course that could change.  

Despite this year's early start, and NOAA's 2017 Tropical Outlook: Above Normal Hurricane Season Expected, we have no way of knowing how many storms will impact the U.S. mainland, or the islands of the Caribbean.  
What we do know is as the summer progresses, and the waters of the Atlantic continue to get warmer, storms tend to form further out to sea, and have a better chance of becoming long track, major storms.
While things heat up in July, it is usually during August and September when the Cape Verde basin awakens and begins to produce what often turn into the largest and most persistent storms.

Every year I give hurricane preparedness a prominent place in this blog because I grew up in hurricane country, and have more than a passing acquaintance with these storms. For more than 50 million Americans living in coastal areas, hurricanes and their byproducts (flooding, tornadoes, lightning) are probably their greatest natural disaster threat.

While South Florida and the northern Gulf coast are at highest risk of direct hurricane impact, even those areas not shaded in – even hundreds of miles inland – can still feel the effects of a hurricanes.
So, if you haven't already done so, now is a good time to pay a visit to NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation Hurricane Preparedness Week 2017 web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.
If you are on Twitter, I highly recommend following @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.

For some of my Hurricane Preparedness blogs, you may wish to revisit:

Hurricane Preparedness Week 2017 (May 7th - May 13th)

Matthew: For When After The Storm Passes

Matthew : When Evacuation Becomes The Better Part Of Valor

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