Wednesday, September 06, 2017

Irma : NHC Key Messages Advisory 29

Three named Storms This Morning - Credit NHC
















#12,746


Overnight models have shifted slightly to the east, although the timing of Irma's expected turn to the north remains uncertain. While all of Florida remains under the gun, those who live in Georgia and the Carolinas (and points north) should also continue to monitor this storm carefully.
If you live in Florida you already know that most store shelves were stripped of bottled water, flashlights, batteries, and other hurricane supplies by early afternoon yesterday.
I talked to friends in Tampa, Orlando, and Apopka last night - all 200+ miles north of Miami - and heard identical stories of long lines and empty shelves from each location. This mad rush to stock up happens before every storm, and while there are always last minute items to get, much of it could be avoided if people prepared at the start of the hurricane season.

Yesterday I met with my neighbors, and found out who would be staying, and who planned to evacuate. We talked about the need to keep an eye on each other's places, the importance of storing ample water before the storm, and the possibility we could be without power post-Irma for a week or longer. 
Hopefully the storm will pass well to our east, but hope is not a plan.
The simple truth is, even if Irma passes us by, this active Atlantic Hurricane season is just barely half over, and we've already seen 11 named storms. Anyone who is lucky enough to dodge Irma this week needs to be preparing for whatever might come down the pike two, three, or six weeks from now.

This morning's forecast track is far from set in stone, and a lot can change over the next 5 days, but this morning's key messages from the NHC are:



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 17.9N  62.6W  160 KT 185 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 18.6N  64.6W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.3W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 20.6N  70.0W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 21.3N  72.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 22.5N  77.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 24.0N  80.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 26.5N  80.9W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

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