Sunday, September 09, 2018

Sunday Morning Key Messages From The NHC On T.S. Florence

Credit NHC




















#13,493


Tropical Storm Florence is expected to regain hurricane status later today, and to quickly ramp up into a major storm, as it barrels its way towards the Southeastern United States.
The models, while they almost all agree on a landfall in about 5 days time, are spread across roughly 600 miles of coastline, and so where Florence comes ashore is still up in the air. 
The National Hurricane center continues to advise interests from North Florida through North Carolina to closely monitor this storm. The picture should become clearer in the next couple of days.

But I would remind everyone that while the greatest wind and surge damage will occur near (and on this track, generally to the north) of the point of landfall, inland flooding - perhaps hundreds of miles from and days following landfall - could cause significant damage and loss of life. 
You don't have to live near the coastline to find yourself impacted by this storm, nor do you need to be in the eye of the storm.  Significant damage can occur hundreds of miles from the core.
This morning's key messages from the NHC are:




The 5 am Discussion from the NHC indicates Florence could be a CAT 4 storm at landfall, making it a serious threat to life and property.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT   09/0900Z 24.5N  55.8W    60 KT  70 MPH
 12H   09/1800Z 24.6N  56.7W    70 KT  80 MPH
 24H   10/0600Z 24.8N  58.3W    85 KT 100 MPH
 36H   10/1800Z 25.3N  60.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H   11/0600Z 26.1N  63.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H   12/0600Z 28.2N  69.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H   13/0600Z 31.3N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 34.4N  77.9W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

For a recent blog on preparing for the storm, you may wish to revisit:

#Natlprep: No Time Like The Present To Prepare