#19,362
October storms born in the Bay of Campeche have a reputation for spinning up rapidly as they approach a landfall. Although that doesn't always happen, it occurs often enough to take these late season storms seriously.
While conditions in the gulf were described as `only marginally conducive for development' just 24 hours ago, the NHC is now forecasting Isaias to ramp up to a strong CAT 2 hurricane by the end of the week.
Estimated wind speeds and positions from today's (Oct 7th) NHC discussion:
Watches and warnings have not been raised yet, but the NHC will probably do so later today. For now the NHC's key messages to the public are:
Currently, it appears that anywhere from the western panhandle of Florida to central Louisiana are in the cone, but high winds, surge tides, and heavy rains are likely to impact well beyond those limits.
Inland flooding could occur hundreds of miles inland, and spin-off tornadoes are possible across much of the southeast. Widespread power outages are likely.
If this is your first hurricane season - or you are just in need of a refresher - you'll find a number of short videos on hurricane prepareded at this NOAA website:
The Hurricane Preparedness Week Social Media Plan
2026 SOCIAL MEDIA PLANS AND VIDEOS English: May 3 - May 9, 2026
En español: 3 de mayo - 9 de mayo de 2026
#HurricaneStrong #HurricanePrep
Please help the NWS spread the word about Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3-May 9, 2026) on social media! Everyone is welcome to use the text and images provided below to help the NWS build a Weather-Ready Nation.
May 3, 2026 — Know Your Risk: Wind & Water
May 4, 2026 — Prepare Before Hurricane Season
May 5, 2026 — Understand Forecast Information
May 6, 2026 — Get Moving When a Storm Threatens
May 7, 2026 — Stay Protected During Storms
While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.