As a hurricane weary Floridian (see 2024's Hurricane Watches Raised For Most of Florida's West Coast), our El Niño dampened 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season has been a happy respite. The last time there were no hurricanes this late into October was 1914 (albeit, well before satellite coverage).
There are still nearly 2 months left to the season (ends Nov 30th), so we may not get away completely unscathed.
While conditions are only marginally conducive, the National Hurricane Center has given an area off the Mexican gulf coast an 80% chance of developing into a tropical system.
If that happens, it will be named Isaias.
While it is too early to predict its strength or where it might head, residents along the northern Gulf coast should keep tabs on its development. The overnight forecast from the NWS NHC reads:
Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America isproducing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Althoughenvironmental conditions appear only marginally conducive fordevelopment, a tropical depression is likely to form within the nextcouple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastwardthrough the middle portion of the week before turning northward. Itis too early to determine specific impacts to the northern GulfCoast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress ofthis system.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Our summer reprieve due to El Niño may be short-lived, as this phenomenon often brings wet and stormy winters to the gulf coast, and can batter California with repeated torrential rains (see California Declares State of Emergency to Bolster Statewide El Niño Preparedness).
As we discussed a month ago, in #NPM26: Preparing For An El Niño Winter, many parts of our country - and the world - may experience wild or unusual weather patterns over the next few months.
Some areas may see floods, or ice storms, or blizzards, while others may see drought, or other weather anomalies. While not everyone will be affected, this winter, it is a good idea to expect the unexpected.
