# 789
Well, at least that's the theory being promoted by some scientists at the OIE.
Good news, if it's true.
But obviously the WHO, the CDC, the HHS, and governments around the world aren't as comforted by this apparent decrease in migratory and wild bird infections as the OIE.
The virus is still running rampant in places like Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Nigeria, primarily in poultry. Surveillance in many countries is non-existent, and despite containment efforts in places like China, and Vietnam, we keep seeing the virus re-emerge.
While the world would certainly welcome the end of this global threat, I fear that any reports of its demise may be premature.
Avian Flu Virus May Be Nearing End as Fewer Birds Die, OIE Says
By Jason Gale
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The avian flu virus that threatens to spark the first pandemic in almost four decades may be nearing the end of its natural cycle after it killed fewer wild and migratory birds this year, an international veterinary body said.
Kuwait, Bangladesh and Ghana reported initial outbreaks of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza between late February and early April, according to the World Organization for Animal Health, or OIE. In comparison, 38 countries reported initial H5N1 infections in the first seven months of 2006.
``In the first half of 2007, countries reported fewer deaths of wild and migratory birds, which could indicate the disease is coming closer to the end of a cycle,'' the Paris-based group said in a statement today.
Diseased birds increase the risk of human infection and provide chances for H5N1 to mutate into a form that's as contagious to people as seasonal flu. H5N1 has infected 306 people in a dozen countries since late 2003, according to the World Health Organization. Sixty percent of cases were fatal.
``Today most countries overcome avian influenza outbreaks when they occur'' in animals, the OIE said. ``The veterinary services in the majority of these countries have successfully dealt with these outbreaks.''
To contact the reporter for this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at
