# 770
This from the Merced Sun-Star.
Health officials prepare for influenza pandemic
By Carol Reiter
CREITER@MERCEDSUN-STAR.COMLast Updated: May 15, 2007, 02:49:35 AM PDT
Public health officials in Merced watched Monday as a killer influenza pandemic marched its way across the United States.
The flu, which was incapacitating one-third of the citizens and killing many, had made it to Merced and was straining local health providers.
It was only a scenario, but the disaster preparedness drill that included Merced County, Mercy Medical Center Merced, law enforcement agencies, Merced County Office of Education, and others was geared toward the real thing.
"In a true pandemic flu emergency, a third of the people in the area would be sick with the disease, and another one-third of the population would be hiding out, scared to death," said Mark Hendrickson, director of governmental affairs for Merced County.
The drill was held at the Merced County Public Health Department, and was run by Counter Terrorism and Chemical Training Inc., a Paso Robles facilitator.
John Volanti, public health director for the county, said that the Merced drill lasted eight hours and covered an eight-week period of time. During that time, the flu would send 1,000 people to local hospitals, and cause 200 deaths.
"This drill is designed to see if our agencies are prepared," Volanti said. "We will be getting calls telling us that the morgue is filling up, or the hospital is overwhelmed."
At Mercy Medical Center Merced, staff was going through the drill as well. Bob McLaughlin, spokesman for Mercy, said that if a scenario like Monday's flu epidemic ever happened, the hospital would have to make more beds available for patients.
"We would set up three care sites, including the Community Campus, the old Dominican Campus, and the cancer center," McLaughlin said.
Although the hospital could staff beds quickly, McLaughlin said that it would have nowhere near as many medical providers as would be needed.
"Up to 40 percent of the staff and providers wouldn't even show up," he said.
While any pandemic drill is a laudable undertaking, some of the numbers in the above article are troubling.
In one paragraph we are told that 1/3rd of people may be out sick and another 1/3rd may be afraid to work during a pandemic, yet they talk of only 40% absenteeism in the health care field.
And given the population of Merced County, over 200,000 people, the number of hospitalized and the number of fatalities appears optimistic.
With an attack rate of 35%, 70,000 residents of Merced County could be expected to be stricken with the virus. Many states, and the Federal government, operate under the assumption that 10% of those infected would need hospitalization, and 2% would perish.
That would work out to be 7,000 hospitalized and 1400 deaths in Merced County, not 1000, and 200 respectively.
Even assuming a 2nd and 3rd wave, with comparable numbers in each, it would appear that authorities are using less than the federal assumptions when preparing for a pandemic.
Obviously no one knows what the next pandemic will bring in terms of total infections, hospitalizations, or deaths. Perhaps the Federal estimates are overblown, and we will see a milder pandemic.
But we've seen in the past the folly of planning for a Category 3 storm, when a Cat 5 may be on the way.
