#19,026
When I started this blog 20+ years ago, influenza A was widely regarded as the primary - and perhaps the only - respiratory virus capable of sparking a pandemic. SARS-CoV had briefly threatened in 2002-2003, but lacked the asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission abilities of flu and was successfully contained.
Influenza B had a very limited host range and lacked the ability to reassort, Influenza C was believed to be mild and relatively stable, and Influenza D had yet to be discovered.
The discovery of other SARS-like viruses in wake of the first outbreak, and emergence of a more virulent MERS-CoV virus in 2012, helped change this influenza A centric view.
Which is why we've looked at scores of other plausible `pandemic contenders' over the past two decades - including Influenza D, Nipah/Hendra, orthopoxviruses, adenoviruses, and viral hemorrhagic fevers - even though most have a low probability of achieving viral infamy.In 2017 (and again in 2018) the WHO released a list (n=8) of priority diseases (see WHO List Of Blueprint Priority Diseases) - that in their estimation had the potential to spark a public health emergency and were in dire need of accelerated research:
- Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF)
- Ebola virus disease and Marburg virus disease
- Lassa fever
- Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
- Nipah and henipaviral diseases
- Rift Valley fever (RVF)
- Zika
- Disease X
In 2024, the WHO unveiled an expanded 38-page Pathogens Prioritization report, increasing the number of priority pathogens to more than 30. Additions included 7 different influenza A subtypes (H1, H3, H3, H5, H6, H7, and H10), and 5 bacterial strains that cause cholera, plague, dysentery, diarrhea and pneumonia.
Last May, in OFID: Viral Families with Pandemic Potential, we looked at a perspective by two well known infectious disease experts (Amesh Adalja, MD FIDSA & Thomas Inglesby, MD) from Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, that proposed - in addition to Influenza A and Coronaviruses - that 4 other viral families be considered as having significant pandemic potential.
- Picornaviridae (e.g. rhinoviruses, EV-71, EV-D68, etc)
- Paramyxoviridae (e.g. HPIV, Nipah, measles, etc.)
- Adenoviridae (e.g. Ad14, Ad7)
- Pneumoviridae (e.g. Metapneumovirus, hRSV, etc.)
The abrupt emergence of a new-and-improved SARS-CoV-2 in 2020 cemented the notion that influenza A was no longer the sole pandemic threat, and that the next crisis could emerge with little or no warning.
All of which brings us to a perspective article, published today in the CDC's EID Journal, that focuses on two recently discovered viruses; Influenza D (see here, here, here, and here) and Canine Coronavirus HuPn-2018 (see here and here) which seemingly have some pandemic potential.
The authors also discuss the importance of monitoring other zoonotic pathogens, and lament the lack of robust proactive surveillance in the face of these threats. I've only posted the link, abstract and a small excerpt.
Follow the link to read it in its entirety. I'll have a brief postscript after the break.
Volume 32, Number 1—January 2026
Perspective
Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats from Influenza D and Canine Coronavirus HuPn-2018
Gregory C. Gray, Anastasia N. Vlasova, John A. Lednicky, Thang Nguyen-Tien, Ismaila Shittu, and Feng Li
Abstract
In 2009 and again in 2019, public health warnings were confirmed by the emergence, rapid widespread transmission, and lethality of novel influenza and coronaviruses. The world continues to suffer disease from these respiratory viruses. Two newly recognized emergent respiratory viruses, influenza D and canine coronavirus HuPn-2018, have been shown to have considerable potential for causing future human epidemics, but diagnostics and surveillance for the viruses are lacking. We reviewed data regarding influenza D virus and coronavirus canine coronavirus HuPn-2018. Those data strongly indicate that these viruses are major newly recognized threats. However, little is being done to respond to or prevent disease associated with these viruses, warranting the question of whether we will learn from previous pandemics.
Although science has developed effective countermeasures for most bacterial and vectorborne emerging pathogens, novel respiratory viruses continue to cause largescale human epidemics. Particularly problematic are pathogens that are of zoonotic origin.Viruses causing epidemics seem especially common among the Orthomyxoviridae and Coronaviridae viral families (1–6; link; link) (Table). Those epidemics have routinely caught medical professionals off-guard and caused largescale disease and death. Two recently discovered viruses, influenza D and canine coronavirus HuPn-2018 (CCoV-HuPn-2018), seem especially worthy of closer public health attention.
(SNIP)
Other Viruses
Of course, in addition to IDV and CCoV-HuPn-2018, public health professionals should seek to detect other animal respiratory viruses as they spill over to infect humans. When possible, such surveillance should be strategically focused at the human–animal nexus where we recognize the risk is high (31). For instance, the risk for novel swine viruses spilling over from swine to infect swine workers is exceedingly high compared with the similar risk for avian influenza viruses spilling over from poultry to infect poultry workers (32–37). Similarly, we are aware of the zoonotic threat of other animal coronaviruses infecting persons directly or indirectly exposed to their animal hosts (38,39).In addition, we posit that evidence of animal adenoviruses spilling over to infect humans is mounting (40). In recent years, molecular evidence has shown that a vampire bat–like adenovirus in Malaysia (41) and a bovine adenovirus in Pakistan (J.R.E. Ansari et al., unpub. data, link) were associated with human respiratory disease.
Because of those and other observations, we argue that periodic surveillance with targeted and panspecies diagnostics would be prudent when addressing emerging respiratory virus threats for viruses in 6 viral families (Adenoviridae, Coronaviridae, Orthomyxoviridae, Paramyxoviridae, Picornaviridae, and Pneumoviridae) (42).Conducting such surveillance in concert with occasional agnostic next-generation sequencing of specimens associated with unusual illnesses can help us better prepare for future pandemic threats at more sustainable costs than previous strategies that sought to detect novel pathogens in many wildlife hosts (43).
If anything, things are even worse now.
The vacuum left behind by these shutdowns is now being filled with reams of disingenuous A.I. generated slop, and incessant clickbait headlines, making it almost impossible to detect early signs of genuine outbreaks around the world.
Which is why I continue to recommend that people consider (see #Natlprep 2025: Personal Pandemic Preparedness) what they will need if another pandemic virus should emerge, and plan accordingly.With the current signal to noise ratio, we could be in the next pandemic for days or even weeks before we know it.
