Tuesday, December 18, 2007

A Pakistani Update

 

# 1380

 

 

This latest report, while basically an rehash of old data, contains a couple of pieces of information we haven't seen officially confirmed before.   

 

  • First, a declaration that the last human case of bird flu detected in Pakistan was back on November 23rd.   

 

  • And second, that some of the victims didn't have direct contact with poultry.  

 

Assuming the first statement is correct  (granted, a big assumption, and it runs contrary to other published reports), and if there are no undetected human infections flying under the radar in the NWFP, then the immediate crisis may be over.  

 

If H2H (human to human) transmission did occur, and we've really gone 25 days without another occurrence, then the odds are pretty good that chain of transmission is probably broken.

 

Yeah, I know.  A lot of `ifs'.

 

 

Of course, the virus hasn't gone away.  It is still endemic in poultry and wild birds,  and may also be riding around in other reservoirs, awaiting another opportunity to jump to man. 

 

 

Even if the immediate crisis is over - long term - the problem remains.

 

 

 

 

 

Pakistanis, WHO check if bird flu passed by people

 

ISLAMABAD, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Pakistani authorities and World Health Organisation (WHO) experts were trying to determine on Tuesday whether bird flu had passed from human to human after the country reported its first human death from the virus.

 

Pakistani health officials confirmed at the weekend that eight people had tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus in North West Frontier Province since late October, of which one person, who worked on a poultry farm, died.

 

A brother of the dead person, who had not been tested, also died. It was not yet clear if he was a victim of bird flu.

 

One hundred people with symptoms of flu living in the vicinity had been checked but all tested negative, said a Ministry of Health spokesman.

 

'No linkage has been developed about human-to-human transmission. We are safe but we have to be very cautious,' said the spokesman, Orya Maqbool Jan Abbasi.

 

The last human case was reported on Nov. 23, he said.

 

Health Secretary Khushnood Akhtar Lashari said on Monday some of the seven affected people had not worked with poultry and authorities were tracing who they had been in contact with.