Credit China CDC (translated by google)
#19,276
While we've enjoyed a prolonged lull in COVID activity here in the United States, the same can't be said for everyone. As we noted 3 weeks ago, both Hong Kong and Taiwan were reporting a summer uptick in COVID cases.
Reassuringly, in their latest update (July 31st), the CDC continues to report very low respiratory illness in the United States, but indicates that - unlike with Flu and RSV - COVID activity is slowly rising.
Where COVID is Increasing (CDC 7/31/26)
`The latest surveillance data showed that local COVID-19 activity is currently in an active period and remains at a relatively high level.'
Today Taiwan's CDC is reporting an additional surge in serious (and even fatal) COVID-19 cases, and is urging the public to get vaccinated and take extra precautions to avoid infection.
With the domestic COVID-19 epidemic rising and currently in its epidemic period, we urge those who have not yet been vaccinated to get vaccinated as soon as possible and to implement self-protective measures such as frequent handwashing and wearing masks.
Release Date: 2026-08-04
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) stated today (August 4th) that the domestic COVID-19 epidemic continues to rise and is in its epidemic period. The CDC urges the public not to let their guard down and to take good self-protection measures, including frequent handwashing; wearing masks when entering and exiting medical care facilities, taking public transportation, and going to crowded indoor places; if experiencing fever or respiratory symptoms, it is recommended to stay home as much as possible and avoid unnecessary outings, remembering to wear a mask when going out; those who have not yet been vaccinated should get vaccinated as soon as possible; and those with other risk factors for severe illness should seek medical attention immediately if they experience suspected symptoms, so that doctors can diagnose and treat them early and prescribe antiviral drugs, reducing the risk of severe complications or death after infection.
According to CDC monitoring data, the domestic COVID-19 epidemic is rising. In the 30th week (July 26th - August 1st), there were 18,990 outpatient and emergency room visits for COVID-19, an increase of 74.8% compared to the previous week (July 19th - July 25th); last week (July 28th - August 3rd), there were 62 new local severe cases and 3 local deaths.
Since October 2025, there have been a total of 265 local cases of COVID-19 complicated by severe illness, of which 28 have died. The majority of severe cases are among those aged 65 and above (74.0%) and those with a history of chronic diseases (85.3%). 89.1% of these cases have not been vaccinated this season. In the past four weeks, the predominant variant strain in local cases is PQ.16.1.1.
The global positivity rate is trending upward, with the US and Europe showing a slight increase from their lows, while Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific are at a plateau. The epidemic continues to rise in China, the US, and the UK; the epidemic is declining weekly in Hong Kong, Japan, and Thailand. Recently, the predominant global variant strains are NB.1.8.1, XFG, and JN.1.
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) points out that as of August 2, 2026, approximately 1.772 million COVID-19 vaccinations have been administered this season, with vaccination rates among those aged 65 and above at 21.12% for the first dose and 0.78% for the second dose. Taiwan has approximately 165,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine in stock. 80,550 doses were allocated to various counties and cities for vaccination on July 30th, and an additional 45,000 doses are expected to be distributed on August 6th based on demand.
(Continue . . . )
While all remains relatively quiet here, the CDC has produced a forecast of sorts; one which suggests that a late summer surge is possible, particularly in areas which saw lower COVID activity last winter.
National Outlook
While the past several waves have shown a trend of declining hospitalizations nationally, it remains possible that there could be a larger increase this summer. There is regional variability in both the timing and magnitude of COVID-19 activity. We developed two COVID-19 modeling scenarios for the summer to demonstrate the range of possibilities for how COVID-19 activity could unfold nationally.
One scenario assumes that no variant with significant immune-escape properties emerges; the other is based on the possible emergence of a variant with moderate immune-escape properties that achieves predominance. The latter scenario is based on the characteristics that were observed in variants that emerged in the United States in the pastA.
While not specifically modeled in this scenario, we note that since its first detection in the U.S. in 2025, there have been detections of BA.3.2 in at least 29 U.S. states and Puerto RicoB. These modeling results show that in the absence of the emergence of a variant with moderate immune-escape properties, we do not expect an increase substantially larger than that experienced this past winter (Figure 2). If such a variant does emerge, there is substantial uncertainty (Figure 2), but modeling suggests increases would likely be within the range of what has been observed in the past 3 years (Figure 1).
Whether COVID-19 will increase significantly in the short-run here in the U.S. is unknown - but given its continued evolution and proven affinity for infecting humans - it seems unlikely that we've seen the last of this troublesome virus.
