Thursday, January 03, 2008

Egypt: More Suspected Cases Being Tested

 

# 1437

 

 

Our tireless newshounds are working long hours, scanning numerous Arabic news sites, looking for information about what is going on in Egypt.  

 

A big hat tip to all of them, on all of the flu forums.

 

While certainly not alone in this endeavor, no one works harder at this than Theresa42, who does a remarkable job tracking, translating, and interpreting these reports.  

 

Theresa posts on Flutrackers and the Wiki.

 

Today Theresa42 has found reports of another 8 or 9 suspected cases hospitalized and being tested in Egypt.  Her comments are in italics above the headline.

 

 

 

8 or 9 new suspected cases.

Dakahlia: 6 new unnamed sus cases in Sadr [Chest] Hospital, Mansoura
Ismailia:  2 new unnamed sus cases in Sadr Ismailia

Menoufiya:  1 new? unnamed case in "salt hospital" Menoufiya

Al Gharbiyah: 6 unnamed sus cases to hospital in Mahala -- I think we prolly already have these
Qena: 1 unnamed sus case -- prolly the infant

Google-translated from Arabic:

 

 

16 cases of detention on suspicion of being infected with avian influenza


Jan 3, 2007

Salem wrote Mitwalli, Ghada Adel patron Anna, Hani Abdel-Rahman

 

Rose on the government and its state of emergency in the provinces, to cope with bird flu, which has returned strongly.  Hospitals have detained 16 cases in 5 provinces, were suspected of being infected with the disease.  Dr. Hatem and threatened mountain, Minister of Health, to take "violent actions", against any man who is careless about the application instructions for combating the disease.

 

Detained Hospital Dietetic Mahala 6 cases were suspected of being infected with bird flu, and detained Sadr Hospital in Mansoura 6 other cases, detained in hospital in Sadr Ismailia two other cases, and detained Hospital Qena case, in addition to another case in a hospital salt Menoufiya, were sent samples of infected blood factor and the central Ministry of Health for analysis.

 

The provinces: Aswan and Damietta and Port Said and Damietta and the city of Luxor raises the state of emergency, and to take preventive action to prevent the spread of the disease.

 

Commissioned Amin Abaza Agriculture Minister General Authority for Veterinary Services prepare a comprehensive inventory of poultry farms, which violate safety norms vital, as a prelude to taking the necessary action to the immediate closure of them. With Dr. Hatem mountain, Minister of Health, that the government will begin to tighten their procedures to combat the disease, threatening to take "violent actions" against any man who is careless about in this matter.

 

He told Reuters: "happened kind of laxity and leniency, people imagine that the disease ended, when we tell them that the disease is endemic in Egypt, and will continue for several years."

 

 

 

The question right now is; what to make of all of this?

 

First, this is regular flu season, and many of these cases may turn out to be routine respiratory infections. Seasonal Influenza.  

 

After four recent bird flu deaths in Egypt, nerves are undoubtedly running high, and anyone with severe `flu-like' symptoms may be thinking `bird flu'.  Authorities, already under fire over the spread of the virus in birds, are no doubt unwilling to take any chances with possible human cases.   

 

The number of suspected cases over the past week now exceeds 3 dozen. It will take some time to sort these cases out. 

 

Egypt has quietly tested thousands of people over the past year, and of those, only about 40 have tested positive.   So simply having 8 or 9 new suspect cases each day doesn't tell us much. 

 

Frankly, it isn't that unusual. Particularly during the winter months.

 

If, however, a large number of these suspects prove to be positive for H5N1, then we may have a serious problem.  It could indicate that the virus is becoming more easily acquired by humans. 

 

The good news is we have NAMRU-3, our U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No.3, on the ground in Cairo.   In the past they have worked closely with the Egyptian authorities on bird flu cases, and presumably are doing so again.

 

The following description comes from their web site.

 

NAMRU-3 is adjacent to the Abbassia Fever Hospital, the oldest and largest fever hospital in the Middle East. NAMRU-3 has modem research laboratories, a medical research library, and is the only laboratory in Africa with an animal facility credited by the American Association for Accreditation of Laboratory Animal Care. It is the largest DoD overseas laboratory, with BSL-3 bio-containment space and field and hospital study sites located throughout Egypt.

 

 

NAMRU-3 is, quite frankly, a world class laboratory.  If something has fundamentally changed with the virus in Egypt, we should know in a few days. 

 

For now, I think we are right to watch developments there closely, but I'm not particularly alarmed.

 

Not yet, anyway.