How The Next Pandemic Will Arrive

 

# 2876

 

There is a lot we don't currently know about the next pandemic.  We don't know when it will arrive.  We don't know what virus will cause it.  And we don't know how bad it will be.

 

But there is one thing almost certain.

 

It will arrive in most countries by airplane.

 

 

The video above, which as been making the rounds for several months, was made by ZHAW (Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften) or The Zurich University of Applied Sciences.

 

 

It is a simulation (using real data) showing 24 hours of air traffic around the world.  Notice how the level of activity follows the daylight.

 

Every year there are more than 17,000,000 commercial airline flights (data from year 2000 - it's probably higher now) that carry hundreds of millions of passengers each year. 

 

Here are the top 10 ten airports in the world listed by International Travelers.  London's Heathrow handles 60 million International passengers a year. 

 

That's about 165,000 International passengers a day.

 

From the Wikipedia - Click to Enlarge

 

 

During the last great pandemic, in 1918, the fastest mode of transcontinental travel was by steam ship, and relatively few made journeys of that sort back then.

 

The Spanish Flu still managed to spread around the globe in a matter of weeks.

Today, an airline passenger can make it to just about anywhere on the planet in less than 24 hours.  

 

Given the 3 to 4 day incubation period for most influenza's - a person could be infected in Hong Kong on Monday, fly to to San Francisco on Tuesday, and not begin to show symptoms until late on Wednesday.

 

Along the way, however, that person could unsuspectingly spreading the virus to other passengers, even before their symptoms appeared.

 

Which makes the next HHS PlanFirst broadcast an important one for everyone to watch.

 

 

On Wednesday, March 18th at 2 p.m. ET the HHS will present their next PlanFirst Webcast on air travel and border screening.

 

Speakers:

• Marty Cetron, M.D., Director, Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, National Center for Preparedness, Detection, and Control of Infectious Diseases, CDC
• Sarah Y. Park, MD, FAAP, State Epidemiologist, Chief, Disease Outbreak Control Division, Hawaii Department of Health
• Francisco Averhoff, M.D., M,P.H., CAPT, US Public Health Service, Quarantine and Border Health Services Branch, Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, National Center for Preparedness, Detection, and Control of Infectious Diseases, CDC

Resources:

• CDC Global Migration and Quarantine Web Site