# 3068
The current WHO phase of pandemic alert is 4.
The World Health Organization has decided to raise the world’s pandemic alert level to Phase 4.
Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.”
The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic.
Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted.
Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
This is an escalation of the threat level, but it does not mean a pandemic has started.
Phase 4 is still a pre-pandemic phase.
Depending on what happens now over the next few days, weeks, or months . . . we could see the alert level go up, or down, or conceivably remain the same.
The goal of moving to level 4 is containment, or limiting the spread of the virus. Containment may not be possible, but there are ways to slow the spread, and that may involve travel advisories, distributing antiviral medications, and asking people to isolate themselves if sick.
I’m sure we will get more details over the coming hours and days.
Will this virus become a pandemic?
That’s the $64 question. And it is a distinct possibility.
Dr Keiji Fukuda, in making this announcement today, stated that this was a `significant step towards a pandemic, but we aren’t there yet.’
He also stated that, "A pandemic is not considered inevitable at this time."
But even if it does become a pandemic, pandemics come in all sizes and shapes.
The 1968 pandemic was so mild, most people were unaffected by it.
It was only a Category 1 pandemic. And that may be what we see this time, too.
A pandemic can also change over time. Viruses mutate and evolve.
What starts out mild can end up harsh, or vice versa.
Quite honestly, you have to wait until a pandemic is over before you can really say how bad it was.
Since we can’t know, in advance, what the next pandemic will bring, it is only prudent to prepare as if it will be severe.
If we get lucky, and the next pandemic isn’t real bad, we can just count our lucky stars.
And begin preparing for the next one.
