# 3495
From the Financial Times tonight we get this report of new estimates to be released on Thursday on the likely impact of swine flu on the British workforce over coming months.
The estimated CFR of .1% to .35% represents a spectrum ranging from about what we expect from seasonal flu (.1%) to more than 3 times that rate (.35%).
The number of people infected by years end is projected to be 30% of the population.
Using their numbers, one comes up with roughly 20 million infections (30%), and anywhere between 20,000 and 70,000 deaths.
We’ll see.
We seem to get new estimates of attack rates and CFR’s (Case fatality ratios) nearly every day. I tend to take most of them with a very large grain of salt.
These, coming from the UK government, may carry more weight than some of the others - but only time will tell us if they are any more accurate.
This from The Financial Times.
Swine flu set to hit one in eight workers
By Andrew Jack
Published: July 15 2009 23:37 | Last updated: July 15 2009 23:37
Almost one in eight workers are likely to be forced to stay at home with swine flu, according to government figures to be released on Thursday.
Nine per cent of the workforce will be sick by the end of August, say the latest official forecasts, and up to 12 per cent in September, when the peak of the first wave of the swine flu pandemic in the UK is expected.
Coupled with the large number of staff taking annual summer holidays, that could present considerable difficulties for employers who have already cut staff in the downturn.
The latest projections, due to be announced by Sir Liam Donaldson, the chief medical officer, suggest that 30 per cent of the population is likely to be infected with flu during this first wave of the pandemic, ahead of an expected second wave near the end of the year.
The data also suggest that between 0.1 per cent and 0.35 per cent of those infected will die from the flu. That could mean up to 350 deaths a day but the wide variation in the estimates shows the difficulty of collecting reliable figures at this relatively early stage in the pandemic.
