Avian Flu Diary: A Flare For The Dramatic

# 5620

An M2 (medium) Class solar flare, with CME and an S1 (minor) Class Radiation storm recorded by NASA on June 7th, 2011.

Although sunspot activity remains relatively low, and the arrival of the next solar maximum (which occurs every 11-13 years) appears to be running a bit behind schedule, this week’s spectacular solar eruption is a reminder that the sun is indeed beginning to awaken from its prolonged quiescence.

In this case, the accompanying spectacular CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) only provided a mild, glancing blow to the earth, and aside from sparking some high latitude auroras, had little effects.

But Scientists at NASA, NOAA, and other agencies . . . including FEMA . . . take the potential for destructive Solar storms very seriously.

While they often occur simultaneously, Solar Flares and CMEs are not the same.

A Solar Flare is the brief, sudden release of radiation energy (X-Ray, Gamma Rays, & energetic particles (protons and electrons)) from the surface of the sun, generally in the vicinity of an active sunspot.

Solar flares are rated as either C Class (minor), M Class (Moderate), or X Class (extreme), and while the electromagnetic radiation they release can reach earth in only about 8 minutes time, their effects are mostly limited to disrupting communications and potentially damaging satellites.

A CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) is the ejection of a massive amount of plasma (electrons and protons & small quantities of helium, oxygen, and iron) from the the sun that may last for hours. Some of this plasma falls back into the sun, but trillions of tons can escape and if aimed in their direction, impact surrounding planets.

A CME may arrive on earth – 93 millions miles distant from the sun – 48 to 72 hours after it is observed, and spark a Geomagnetic Storm.

While they pose no direct physical danger to us on the earth’s surface (we are protected by the earths magnetic field and atmosphere), a large CME can wreak havoc with electronics, power generation, and radio communications.

Geomagnetic storms are rated as running from Minor (G1) to Extreme (G5) on NOAA Space Weather Scales.

While G1-G3 level geomagnetic storm poses little threat, the potential for damage goes up at G4 and above. I’ve excerpted the G5 description.

G 5

Extreme

Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.

Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.

Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)**.

FEMA takes all of this very seriously, and in early 2010 they held a major table-top exercise in anticipation of the upcoming solar maximum. According to a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate last February, they now include a solar weather update in their daily briefings.

A 30 page PDF file is available for download from the FEMA library on this exercise which envisioned a `near worst-case scenario’.

Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain - The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm

An excerpt from this report’s forward reads:

Unlike natural hazards that we have faced in the past, disasters caused by abnormal solar activity could pose a worldwide threat and disrupt energy supplies, air transport, telecommunications, and other critical infrastructure.

Addressing such a large-scale disaster in purely national terms is not sufficient and requires international collaboration.

Last year NPR produced a news report, and a brief All Things Considered audio report on this exercise.

Solar Storms Could Be Earth's Next Katrina

by Jon Hamilton February 26, 2010

While sounding a bit like science-fiction, and being used as fodder by prophesy/ Mayan 2012/ End-of-the-World fringe websites, the truth is exceptionally large and disruptive solar storms do occur on rare occasions – usually at the time of a solar maximum.

NASA, while admitting that a serious solar storm could happen practically anytime, also cautions that the next big one could be many decades away. It is a genuine threat, they say, but the timing is impossible to predict.

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

You can download the PDF for free from the National Academies Press at the above link.

Large CMEs have occurred before, and have struck the earth.

I wrote about the most famous one that struck back in the 1800s in my blog A Carrington Event. Fortunately this massive CME happened before mankind developed, and became highly dependent upon, our modern electronic infrastructure.

A repeat performance today could cause widespread disruption.

Since it would require a massive CME of the correct polarity (opposite of the earth’s magnetosphere), aimed at where the earth will be 2 to 3 days hence . . . a lot of things would have to happen just right in order for the earth to experience a hugely destructive G5 Geomagnetic storm.

Which means that you shouldn’t lie awake at nights worrying about an impending solar storm apocalypse.

But you should be making serious individual, family, and business `All Threats’ disaster preparations, since the range of threats is large, and expanding.

If you are well prepared for an earthquake, a tornado, hurricane, or a pandemic . . . you are automatically in a better position to weather the disruptions caused by a rare solar storm or an even more unlikely Zombie Apocalypse (see The CDC And The Zombie Apocalypse).

Some resources to get you started on the road to `all threats’ preparedness include: