Note: Although this first essay continues to get a lot of visits, you’ll find some updated information in the following blogs.
Recent Media Reports On Solar Maximum
NASA Braces For Solar Disruptions
# 4665
In September of 1859 Richard Carrington, a renowned English astronomer, observed and recorded a tremendous solar flare that – were it to be repeated today – would wreck havoc with our modern electronic infrastructure.
Here is how NASA science news described the effects.
Just before dawn the next day, skies all over planet Earth erupted in red, green, and purple auroras so brilliant that newspapers could be read as easily as in daylight. Indeed, stunning auroras pulsated even at near tropical latitudes over Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica, El Salvador, and Hawaii.
Even more disconcerting, telegraph systems worldwide went haywire. Spark discharges shocked telegraph operators and set the telegraph paper on fire. Even when telegraphers disconnected the batteries powering the lines, aurora-induced electric currents in the wires still allowed messages to be transmitted.
On Saturday, John Solomon at the In Case of Emergency Blog, wrote about the threat posed by severe space weather and the attentions being given it by FEMA and the Federal Government.
Go ahead and read it. I’ll have more when you return.
As you can see, this isn’t some esoteric plot device for a cheesy direct-to-DVD Sci-Fi movie, or prophesy driven 2012 drivel: space weather is a serious threat than can, and does, affect life on earth.
Our sun is a variable star, and it goes through many major, and minor cycles. The best documented of these is the 11-year/22-year sunspot cycle.
Roughly every 11 years (it runs anywhere from 9 to 14 years), the sun experiences a magnetic pole shift at the time of solar maximum – a period of high sunspot and solar flare activity.
Every 22 years, the cycle completes, and the poles return to their `original’ position.
Our sun has, since 2006, been in a solar minimum or quiescent phase. Very few sunspots and solar flares.
The next solar maximum was predicted to occur in 2012, but the sun’s sunspot activity remains low, and so now NASA is looking more towards 2013.
This, again, from science.nasa.gov.
As the Sun Awakens, NASA Keeps a Wary Eye on Space Weather
June 4, 2010: Earth and space are about to come into contact in a way that's new to human history. To make preparations, authorities in Washington DC are holding a meeting: The Space Weather Enterprise Forum at the National Press Club on June 8th.
Many technologies of the 21st century are vulnerable to solar storms. [more]
Richard Fisher, head of NASA's Heliophysics Division, explains what it's all about:
"The sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and in the next few years we expect to see much higher levels of solar activity. At the same time, our technological society has developed an unprecedented sensitivity to solar storms. The intersection of these two issues is what we're getting together to discuss."
The National Academy of Sciences framed the problem two years ago in a landmark report entitled "Severe Space Weather Events—Societal and Economic Impacts." It noted how people of the 21st-century rely on high-tech systems for the basics of daily life. Smart power grids, GPS navigation, air travel, financial services and emergency radio communications can all be knocked out by intense solar activity. A century-class solar storm, the Academy warned, could cause twenty times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina.
The `money quote’ from this article comes at the end, from Richard Fisher:
"I believe we're on the threshold of a new era in which space weather can be as influential in our daily lives as ordinary terrestrial weather." Fisher concludes. "We take this very seriously indeed."
Solar flares the size of the `Carrington Event’ don’t happen very often, and in order to affect earth, the flare or CME (coronal mass ejection) must be pointed towards our planet.
Still, in 1989 a geomagnetic storm fried several large power transformers in Quebec, causing a province-wide blackout. And in 2003, a number of satellites were severely damaged by an extremely powerful CME which also caused some power outages in Europe.
Over the past couple of decades we’ve become increasingly dependant upon computers, the Internet, cell phones, electronic devices, and of course . . . the electrical grid.
Systems that are vulnerable to unusually severe geomagnetic storms.
In 2009 the National Academy of Science produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.
You can read it for free online at the above link.
Last year Space.com produced a spectacular 18 minute video entitled Attack of the Sun, which may be viewed on YouTube (dbl click image to view on the Youtube page).
As you might imagine, this threat has been picked up and greatly amplified by a number of prophesy/ Mayan 2012/ End-of-the-World websites. Hyperbole which tends to dilute its legitimacy among many people.
But if you take away the hype, you’ll find that this is a genuine issue.
Predictions over what kind of solar maximum we might see in 2012-2013 have been all over the board the past few years, ranging from above normal to below average.
Complicating matters right now is the fact that the sun seems to be a bit off schedule.
It has remained quiet longer than usual, and the level of solar activity right now is below what was expected by now.
Recent predictions have been for a mild solar maximum.
But even a below average maximum is capable of unleashing a violent solar storm.
As far as preparing, governments and industry around the world are working to `harden’ critical infrastructure against geomagnetic storm damage.
They’ve got a long way to go, however.
Another `Carrington Event’ may not happen in our lifetime, or it could happen this year.
No one knows.
I certainly don’t advocate lying awake at night worrying about it. But I do believe that we all need to be prepared to deal with a variety of disaster scenarios.
And if you are well prepared for an earthquake, a hurricane, or a pandemic . . . you are automatically in a better position to weather the disruptions caused by a solar storm.
Some resources to get you started on the road to `all threats’ preparedness include:
FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm
READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/
AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/
And a few of my (many) preparedness essays include:
An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness
Inside My Bug Out Bag
Red Cross Unveils `Do More Than Cross Your Fingers’ Campaign
The Gift Of Preparedness
You can search this blog for more preparedness information by clicking this link.
And if you’d like to keep up with the current space weather, and forecasts, www.spaceweather.com is a terrific resource. You’ll find forecasts, articles, and even the latest videos of solar activity.
I’m enough of a science geek that I try to check it every day.
