Avian Flu Diary: Revisiting Pandemic Preparedness

Basic Preps: Emergency Weather Radio, First Aid Kit, Battery Lantern, Water storage

# 7284

With the 2009 H1N1 pandemic behind us, and largely perceived as having been `mild’ by the public, the idea of planning for another pandemic seems to have fallen out of favor.

Many people assume – since we went more than 40 years between the last two pandemics- that we now have decades before we need worry about another one.

But nature doesn’t know or care about calendars. And pandemics have come only a few years apart in the past.

Part of the reluctance to talk pandemic prep is likely due to our prolonged economic downturn. It’s hard to tell people who are living week-to-week they should try to set aside a month’s worth of food or medicine.

But a pandemic virus doesn’t care about economics, or the amount of food in your pantry, either.

For whatever reason, much of the pandemic preparedness messaging put forth by the HHS prior to 2009 has disappeared from government sites.

The following was part of that earlier messaging that appeared on the old pandemicflu.gov site.

PLANNING FOR PANDEMIC INFLUENZA:
INFORMATION FOR INDIVIDUALS AND FAMILIES

Social Disruption May Be Widespread

Plan for the possibility that usual services may be disrupted. These could include services provided by hospitals and other health care facilities, banks, stores, restaurants, government offices, and post offices.

Prepare backup plans in case public gatherings, such as volunteer meetings and worship services, are canceled.

Consider how to care for people with special needs in case the services they rely on are not available.

Being Able to Work May Be Difficult or Impossible

Find out if you can work from home.

Ask your employer about how business will continue during a pandemic.

Plan for the possible reduction or loss of income if you are unable to work or your place of employment is closed.

Check with your employer or union about leave policies.

Schools May Be Closed for an Extended Period of Time

Help schools plan for pandemic influenza. Talk to the school nurse or the health center. Talk to your teachers, administrators, and parent-teacher organizations.

Plan home learning activities and exercises. Have materials, such as books, on hand. Also plan recreational activities that your children can do at home.

Consider childcare needs.

Transportation Services May Be Disrupted

Think about how you can rely less on public transportation during a pandemic. For example, store food and other essential supplies so you can make fewer trips to the store.

Prepare backup plans for taking care of loved ones who are far away.

Consider other ways to get to work, or, if you can, work at home

If this sounds grim, it’s because a severe pandemic would be highly disruptive.

Earlier today I highlighted an essay by Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard on the risk communications messaging coming out of the CDC and other agencies on the pandemic potential of both H7N9 and MERS-CoV (nCoV).

If you haven’t read that essay yet, I would invite you to do so now:

H7N9 Risk Communication: Candor but No Push to Prepare

by Peter M. Sandman

As Peter rightly points out, emergency vaccines are unlikely to play much of a role in the first six-to-eight months of any H7N9 pandemic, and they may not be available at all with MERS.

The reasons for this are discussed in depth in several of my earlier blogs:

Challenges To Developing A Coronavirus Vaccine

JAMA: Challenges Of Producing An Effective & Timely H7N9 Vaccine

Branswell On The Challenges Of Producing An H7N9 Vaccine

H7N9 Vaccine Realities

With MERS, we have no antiviral at this time to combat it, and while H7N9 still appears to be sensitive to oseltamivir (Tamiflu ®) – stockpiles are limited – and the virus could pick up resistance along the way.

As we discussed in WHO: H7N9 Candidate Vaccine Viruses, our first line of defense in any pandemic is not going to be a shot or a pill, it is a range of steps collectively called NPIs, or Non Pharmaceutical Interventions.

The CDC’s Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) webpage defines NPIs as:

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are actions, apart from getting vaccinated and taking medicine, that people and communities can take to help slow the spread of illnesses like influenza (flu). NPIs are also known as community mitigation strategies.

NPIs are geared to the virulence and spread of the virus, and may range from simple advice to `wash your hands and cover your coughs’ to mandatory school and business closings.

As you might envision, a severe pandemic could easily disrupt supply lines – which means that even if you were willing to go to the grocery store during an outbreak – you might find the cupboards bare.

So having a couple of weeks worth of food in the larder might turn out to be an excellent idea.

In 2007, I along with a group of other like-minded Flublogians worked on a pandemic preparedness project called GET PANDEMIC READY (my contributions were relatively minor). There you will find dozens of PDF files dedicated to various aspects of preparing for, and dealing with, a severe pandemic.

Admittedly, its not feasible for everyone to stockpile 90 days of food and water, but even a few weeks would be a goal worth shooting for. The federal government urges a minimum of 72 hours of preps – but has stated that 10 days to 2 weeks would be preferable.

There are other preps you may wish to consider if a pandemic threatens, such as masks and antivirals, and those are topics we’ll get into again at a later date.

Last month, in H7N9 Preparedness: What The CDC Is Doing, we looked at some personal preparedness options – just in case a pandemic erupted.

While written for Californians, one of my recommendations was to download a copy of the County of Los Angeles Emergency Survival Guide, which takes a fairly aggressive preparedness stance, and recommends families stockpile 3 to 10 days worth of supplies.

The L.A. guide may be downloaded here (6.5 Mbyte PDF).

While we don’t know if a pandemic is in the offing, we do know that disasters – large and small – happen with disturbing regularity. Anywhere between 50 and 100 major disasters are declared each year in the United States alone.

Earthquakes and tornadoes come without warning, we are headed towards an uncertain solar maximum (see Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA)and we are less than two weeks from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Given the combined risks, now would be a good time to review and update your `all hazards’ preparedness plans and correct any deficits in your supplies. For more, you may wish to revisit some of my earlier preparedness essays, including: