#NatlPrep – When Evacuation Becomes The Better Part Of Valor

My Bug-out-bag, Canteen, & Toiletry kit

 

Note: This is day 11  of National Preparedness Month . Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM15, I’ll be rerunning some edited and updated older preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

 

#10,511

 

Although I pride myself in having enough basic disaster preparedness supplies to go a week or longer in my home, I live in an area and in a structure that I would have to leave should we get a direct hit from a major hurricane.  It is not a happy thought, but sometimes circumstances and common dictate that you must leave your home - and the bulk of your preps - behind.

 

Luckily, I have several pre-arranged places I can go.   Friends, who are also disaster buddies (see In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?), who know my couch is always available to them.

 

Regular readers know I very nearly had to `bug-out’ three years ago (see At The End Of My Rope), when the world came crashing down in the middle of the night, and fellow blogger Maryn McKenna described her close call from 2013 in The Risks You Don’t Think of: A Plea to Pack a ‘Go Bag’.

The world is an uncertain place, and everything from storm or earthquake damage, to rising flood waters or a house fire, or industrial accidents to terrorism could suddenly force you and your family to evacuate with only minutes notice.   It happens more often – and to more people each year – than you think. 

And it could easily happen to you.

 

The following photo taken in Crystal Beach after Hurricane Ike in 2008 proves that staying home in the face of a flood, a hurricane, or other natural disaster can have deadly consequences.

 

Being able to leave in a hurry when an evacuation has been ordered means having a plan, a destination, and an emergency `to go’ kit or `BOB’ already equipped, and standing by.

 

In the vernacular, a `bug-out bag'  or `BOB’  (or sometimes GOOD bag for `Get Out Of Dodge’) a bag of emergency supplies, ideally kept at the ready, that one can grab on the way out the door during an emergency.

 

Every hurricane season I go through my personal bug out bag, and replace flashlight and radio batteries from last year, and swap out older emergency rations for newer ones.

 

A BOB isn't supposed to be a survival kit, but rather, is supposed to provide the essentials one might need during the first 72 hours of a forced, and sometimes unexpected, evacuation.

 

It should contain food, water, any essential prescription medicines, copies of important papers (ID's, insurance, important Phone #s), a first aid kit, portable radio, flashlight, extra batteries, and ideally blankets and extra clothes.

 

While having to evacuate your home may seem like an unlikely event, every years hundreds of thousands of Americans are forced to do so.  Rivers spill their banks, dams break, brush fires rage out of control, even sudden industrial accidents can force evacuations.

 

And unlike with a hurricane, you won’t always have advance warning.

 

Ready.gov has the following advice on how to prepare for an evacuation  

 

Evacuating Yourself and Your Family

There may be conditions under which you will decide to get away or there may be situations when you are ordered to leave. Follow these guidelines for evacuation:

• Plan places where your family will meet, both within and outside of your immediate neighborhood. Use the Family Emergency Plan to decide these locations before a disaster.
• If you have a car, keep a full tank of gas in it if an evacuation seems likely. Keep a half tank of gas in it at all times in case of an unexpected need to evacuate. Gas stations may be closed during emergencies and unable to pump gas during power outages. Plan to take one car per family to reduce congestion and delay.
• Become familiar with alternate routes and other means of transportation out of your area. Choose several destinations in different directions so you have options in an emergency.
• Leave early enough to avoid being trapped by severe weather.
• Follow recommended evacuation routes. Do not take shortcuts; they may be blocked.
• Be alert for road hazards such as washed-out roads or bridges and downed power lines. Do not drive into flooded areas.
• If you do not have a car, plan how you will leave if you have to. Make arrangements with family, friends or your local government.
• Take your emergency supply kit unless you have reason to believe it has been contaminated.
• Listen to a battery-powered radio and follow local evacuation instructions.
• Take your pets with you, but understand that only service animals may be permitted in public shelters. Plan how you will care for your pets in an emergency.

Since I live in a hurricane evacuation zone, I have an emergency plan, a pre-arranged place to go, and my evac  kit (see Inside My New Bug Out Bag) packed and ready to go.

Of course, you’d be hard pressed to put everything for a family of four into one bag.  So each family member should have their own BOB.

Some items, like the radio, lights, and first aid kit needn’t be duplicated in each bag. 

I keep my BOB within arm’s reach of my first aid kit, and would hopefully be able to grab both, even in an emergency. 

 

On top of this, I keep a spare first aid kit in my car, along with an `overnight bag’, and I have a third duffle bag packed with extra supplies, that I would hopefully be able to throw in the car as well.

 

But if I had to, I could easily go 72 hours on just my bug-out bag alone.

 

I do these things to give me peace of mind and confidence that I’m ready to deal with just about any emergency that comes my way.

 

The truth is, preparing is easy.

 

It’s worrying that is hard.

#NatlPrep: Instead Of Cursing The Darkness

 

 

Note: This is day 10 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep hash tag.  This month, as part of NPM15, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

 

10,507

 

Short term power outages affect most of us each year, usually lasting anywhere from a few minutes to a couple of hours.  Longer outages, while less common, are far from rare.  

 

• During the summer of 2012, a powerful Derecho swept across the Mid-Atlantic states leaving nearly 4 million people without power, some for several days.
• Later in 2012, during and after Hurricane Sandy, as many as 8 million residents of New York and New Jersey were without power, some for as long as a week. 
• During the ice storm of December 2013, hundreds of thousands of Ontarians were without power for several days, and parts of Michigan were hard hit as well.

 

Hurricanes, ice storms, Nor’easters, tornados, floods, tornadoes . . .  and even solar storms (see Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA) are capable of crippling power production and delivery.  Add in our aging infrastructure, and the potential of cyber (or physical) attacks on the system, and the odds of seeing more major power outages only increases.

 

It is the job of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) to "ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system", a mandate given to it in 2006 as a result of the 2003 Northeast blackout which affected more than 50 million people in the United States and Ontario, Canada. 

 

In  2009, NERC issued a public notice warning that the grid was `vulnerable’ to cyber attack.

 

Nearly three years ago, in GridEx 2013 Preparedness Drill, we looked at a major drill mounted by NERC to determine their ability to respond to a full grid-down situation, due to a cyber-attack.  Despite attempts to `harden’ the electrical grid against attacks, the following year Bloomberg News reported:

 

U.S. Power Grid Vulnerable to Attack: Congressional Research Service

A coordinated and simultaneous attack on the nation's electricity grid could have “crippling” effects including widespread extended blackouts and “serious economic and social consequences,” according to a federal report on the physical security of high-voltage transformer substations.

Without electrical power, water and gasoline doesn’t pump, elevators and air conditioners don’t run, ATM machines and banks close, grocery stores can’t take debit or credit cards, and everything from cooking, to flushing toilets, becomes a major challenge.  Particularly in urban settings.

 

Having lived for more than a year `on the hook’ on a sailboat, I understand what its like to be off the grid.  But of course, I’d prepared for that. 

 

I had solar panels, kerosene lanterns, battery operated devices, and other work arounds.   It wasn’t luxurious, or even comfortable a good deal of the time, but living aboard a boat in the tropics tends to make up for such things.

 

Today, I’ve `swallowed the anchor’, and live on dry land.  But I keep the much of the same gear I had aboard my sailboat, in case the power goes out.  Battery operated radios, LED lanterns (much improved over the old, hot, smelly kerosene lanterns),  a propane camp stove (with extra fuel) . . .  even a small solar panel to recharge batteries.

 

If a disaster struck your region today, and the power went out, stores closed their doors, and water stopped flowing from your kitchen tap for the next 7 days  . . .  do you have:

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials?
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries?
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration?
• A way to provide light (and in cold climates, heat) for your family without electricity?   And a way to cook?  And to do this safely?
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working?
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag?
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need?

If your answer is `no’, you have some work to do.  A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov.

 

Unfortunately, a lot of people make the wrong choices when they do prepare.  They buy candles instead of battery operated lights, they use generators inside their house or garage, or resort to dangerous methods to cook or to heat their homes. 

 

As a result, when the power goes out, house fires and carbon monoxide poisonings go up. Each year hundreds of Americans are killed, and thousands affected, by CO poisoning (see In Carbon Monoxide: A Stealthy Killer).

 

Food safety after a power outage is another concern, and is something I covered a couple of years ago in USDA: Food Safety When The Power Goes Out.

 

While preparedness may seem like a lot of work, it really isn’t.  You don’t need an underground bunker, an armory, or 2 years worth of dehydrated food.  But you do need the basics to carry on for a week or two, and a workable family (or business) emergency/disaster plan.

 

For more information on how to prepare, I would invite you  to visit:

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

#NatlPrep - The Gift Of Preparedness

 

CDC Infographic

 

Note: This is day 8 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep hash tag.  This month, as part of NPM15, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

 

#10,500

 

Despite years of campaigns by FEMA, Ready.gov, and the Red Cross to try to get Americans prepared for disasters (see America’s Preparathon! : It Started Like Any Other Day), polling shows that half of American families remain ill prepared to deal with even a 3-day disruption in essential services like electrical power, water, or the ability to run to the grocery store.  

 

Those that say they are prepared often overestimate their ability to fend for themselves during a prolonged crisis.

 

Which is why, for many years, I’ve given preparedness gifts to family and friends in lieu of the traditional ugly sweater, necktie, or boxed meat and cheese selection for birthdays, anniversaries, or holidays. I first started blogging this concept back in 2007 (see Hickory Farms Will Hate Me For This), and have updated the list every year since then.

 

Products mentioned below are to provide a general idea of the type of gift, and should not be viewed as an endorsement of one brand over another. I often find these gifts on sale in discount stores, bargain basements, and flea markets, and stock up whenever I come across a good deal.

 

Sometimes I make the gifts myself, as when several years back I put together some first aid kits, and distributed them to a number of friends and relatives. You can either put one together yourself, or purchase one already assembled.  There is no substitute for having a well stocked first aid kit when you need one.

A couple of years ago I also bought several 5 gal. buckets (with lids) from a home improvement store, along with mylar bags and oxygen absorbers from Amazon, and put together some long-term food storage buckets for friends.  

Cost per bucket?  About $30.  But enough food to keep two people going for a week or more in an emergency.  

 

Anyone who knows me knows that I have a particular interest in (ok, its more of a compulsion to buy)  LED flashlights and lanterns.  In 2006 I lucked upon a closeout bin of cheap imported `shake flashlights’ for .77 cents each, and bought out the store (40 of them, 38 of which I gave as gifts).

A couple of years later I ran across a deal on LED headlamps, and bought about 20 of them for $2 apiece.  The following year, I found LED Cap lights (they clip to the bill of a baseball style cap) for $3 each, which I confess I like even better.

 

And it seems each year the LED lanterns get lighter, brighter, and cheaper. 

 

This year I ran across a display of LED light sticks, with three modes of light, and a built in whistle.  The button batteries promise 200 hrs of running, but even if they last half that, at $3 each they were a bargain.  I bought 5 to test out.  One for my car, one for my bug out bag, and three for stocking stuffers.

My collection of LED lights continues to grow, and the best part is none of the items pictured below cost me more than $5 each.

Every home should have a battery operated radio, yet many do not. A few years ago I bought my daughter a combination windup-battery-solar AM/FM/SW radio for under $40, and she uses it every day.  I have larger windup Baygen shortwave radio for my own use, plus several small battery operated radios.

I also found a combination AM/FM Weather ALERT radio at a discount store for under $20. Again, every home and business should have an emergency alert radio.

Last year I upgraded my FRS radios from my old Motorola Walkabout T5000s to a pair of Motorola MJ270R 22-Channel Two-Way Radios.  They not only have a built in NOAA Weather Radio, they each have an LED Flashlight as well (nirvana!).

My old T5000s still work, so they will be handed out to neighbors in the event of a local crisis, to help with neighborhood communications.

 

A couple of years ago  I bought several water filtration systems, one to keep and a couple to give to prepping buddies.  LifeStraw ® is now available in the United States and Canada; at just 2 ounces, this personal water filter will reportedly filter 1000 liters down to .2 microns. Not bad for around $20.

Speaking of water, having a way to store enough water for three days (1 gal/person/day) is essential. A family of 4 will need at least 12 gallons for 72 hours.   Personally, I keep enough on hand for a couple of weeks.  While there are plenty of `free options’ – like rinsed and recycled 2-liter plastic soda bottles or other food-safe plastic jugs – you can also buy collapsible 5 gallon containers.

I also picked up a few single burner Propane stove units on sale for $10 each. Add a couple of 1 pound propane cylinders (about $3 each) and you can cook for a week. 

I also buy a  few magnesium fire starters each year (at $4 each) which will end up as stocking stuffers.

 

As I’ve described in  Preparedness: Solar Power On A Budget, it is a relatively easy task to set up a simple solar charging system. No, you won’t keep the A/C or refrigerator running on a budget system, but you can keep your LED lantern batteries, cell phone, iPod or iPad, or notebook computer running.

 

I’m seeing reasonably priced `briefcase’ solar panels – often for between $50 and $80 – that, when unfolded, can charge a 12 volt storage battery with up to 13 watts of power.  Add a $20 inverter (converts 12 volt battery power to 120v AC), and you can do a heck of a lot.

 

If I didn’t already have a couple of more powerful panels left over from my sailboat, I’d seriously consider one of these.

Typical 13 watt Solar System

Speaking of inverters, I have a 400 watt unit for my solar setup, but I’ve also just purchased an 80 watt cigarette lighter inverter for my car.  It can power a small laptop, and has a USB charger port as well.  Under $20. A few of these will end up in the stockings of friends this year. .

And for under $10, you can pick up a cigarette lighter USB charger, that can top off your phone or mobile device.

 

Something as simple, and as utilitarian, as a multifunction `Swiss’ army knife or a `Multi-tool’ makes a great preparedness gift.

Another inexpensive gift idea that is handy every flu season, and could be even more valuable during an epidemic – is for under $10 you can buy a box of exam gloves, and a box of facemasks.

Several years ago Joel over at Preparedness and Response came up with what I consider to be an excellent preparedness idea, giving USB flash drives to family and friends and instructions on how to back up their important papers and documents.

Inexpensive USB Drives start under $10.

 

He explains it in  his essay Helping others prepare (Personal Preparedness), where he gives his rationale for going with the durable mil-spec and encrypted, but fairly pricey IronKey brand.

 

My thanks to Joel for a terrific idea. 

 

These are all useful, indeed, potentially lifesaving items, that most people simply don't think about buying fror themselves until it is too late.

 

Giving them as gifts, instead of more traditional items, not only helps prepare the people you love and care about for an emergency, it opens the door for conversations about pandemic and disaster preparedness.

 

We need to cultivate a culture of preparedness in this country, and around the world.

 

We can start doing that, one gift at a time.

T.S. Ana Threatens North & South Carolina Coastline

 

 

# 10,027

 

It’s still three weeks till the Atlantic Tropical Storm season officially kicks off (June 1st),  but subtropical storm Ana transitioned into a full-fledged tropical storm overnight and ramped up its winds to a respectable 60 MPH sustained, as it slowly saunters off the Southeastern coastline.

 

Landfall should come Sunday morning, somewhere near the North/South Carolina boarder, but tropical storm force winds, heavy rains, and some coastal flooding are likely to begin to be felt today and tonight.

 

While not a particularly large or powerful storm, local interests should monitor the storm on the NHC website, and follow all instructions offered by their local Office of Emergency Management.   If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov. 

 

This is the latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center:

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

...ANA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

We’ll be participating, as we do every year, in National Hurricane Preparedness Week later in the the month, but Ana’s early arrival serves to illustrate the value of always being prepared for the unexpected. If you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so.

Some Preseason Doings Off The Florida Coast

 

# 10,017

 

As a Floridian with more than enough hurricane notches in my belt for a lifetime, I always approach the start of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season (June 1st) with a small amount of trepidation. 

 

While I’ve swallowed the anchor (aka `moved landside’), nothing beats riding through a couple of rowdy tropical storms aboard a small sailboat to instill a lifelong respect for these powerful storms.

 

 

Rarely, we will  see the development of one of these tropical systems outside the traditional June1st-Nov 31st hurricane season.  May leads the pack with 20 such storms (between 1851-2013), followed by December with 17.  But February, March, and April each have one on record as well.   

 

Most, thankfully, never reach hurricane strength. Although as anyone who went through the March superstorm of 1993 will attest, having tropical characteristics, a name, and hurricane status are sometimes overrated. 

This unnamed system claimed more than 300 lives and inflicted more than $6 billion dollars in damage as it swept out of the Gulf and up the Atlantic Seaboard.

 

All of which makes it unusual, but not unheard of, that NOAA’s National Hurricane Center finds itself monitoring an area of suspicion – with potential to develop – off the southern coast of Florida.   Interests along the Florida and Southeastern United States Coast are urged to monitor its progress over the next few days.

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the northwestern Bahamas.  The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled for this afternoon has been cancelled.  However, conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the next day or so while the system moves slowly northward.  A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by Thursday or Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8 PM EDT today. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

 

We’ll spend a fair amount of time looking at hurricane preparedness during National Hurricane Preparedness Week at the end of May.  Disasters, however, don’t read calendars and so it is always prudent to prepare sooner rather than later.

Reminder: America’s PrepareAthon! On Thursday April 30th

 

# 9986

 

Last week’s devastating M7.8 Earthquake in Nepal, and its many aftershocks, are a grim reminder of just quickly disaster can strike anywhere in the world. 

 

One minute everything is normal, and the next . . .   lives are altered, and normalcy and stability may be months or even years away. 

 

For years the American Red Cross, FEMA, Ready.gov, and just about everyone else in emergency services has urged that individuals and families be prepared to deal for at least 72 hours after a major disaster.

 

The operative words being, `at least’.  Being able to go a week, or even 10 days would be even better (see When 72 hrs Isn’t Enough ), and with good reason

 

The logistics of delivering emergency assistance to millions of people - while hampered by bad weather, crippled communications, damaged infrastructure, and stressed supply chains - all within the first three days of a major disaster, are daunting, and in some cases impossible. 

 

The popularity of Doomsday Preppers on the National Geographic Channel  has a lot of people believing that preparedness is all about getting ready for the perpetually impending apocalyptic collapse of society.  But for the vast majority of us who embrace the preparedness lifestyle - it is the far more common localized disaster that spurs us on:

 

. .. hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms, blizzards, earthquakes, floods (and yes, even a pandemic)  . . . along with even more limited emergencies like house fires, car accidents, or personal accident and injury.

 

While we can’t pick and choose what emergencies will befall us – we can elect whether or not to be prepared to deal with them –  which is why federal agencies like FEMA and READY.GOV work year-round to encourage Americans to think about their risks, and to prepare for them.

 

To that end, last year FEMA and READY.GOV introduced National PrepareAthon! Day, which is actually part of a two-season campaign for better preparedness.  The spring National PrepareAthon! Day occurs on April 30th, while the fall component comes on September 30th at the close of National Preparedness Month.

 

To learn how you can take part, go to America's PrepareAthon!

About America's PrepareAthon!

America's PrepareAthon! is an opportunity for individuals, organizations, and communities to prepare for specific hazards through drills, group discussions, and exercises.

National PrepareAthon! Day is April 30, 2015 and will revolve around taking the actions to prepare for these six specific hazards:

• Earthquake
• Flood
• Hurricane
• Tornado
• Wildfire
• Winter Storm

Campaign Goals

The goal of this campaign is to increase the number of individuals who:

• Understand which disasters could happen in their community
• Know what to do to be safe and mitigate damage
• Take action to increase their preparedness
• Participate in community resilience planning

What can I do?

• Register to participate in America’s PrepareAthon! and provide details about the activities you’re planning.
• Plan your own local community or organizational preparedness event
• Participate in discussion forums online with like-minded community members
• Learn the actions to take for disaster preparedness and practice them!

Where can I find more information?

• For more information about disasters, preparedness, and ways to get involved in America's PrepareAthon!, click here to access the America's PrepareAthon! Fact Sheet and Frequently Asked Questions.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

As a former paramedic, I can’t stress enough the importance of being prepared to deal with the unexpected, and having the basic resources on hand to get through an emergency. 

 

Ready.gov recommends that first and foremost, you need to Make a Plan, then you can go about Building A Kit.

 

Things like having a good first aid kit at home, and another one in your car.  And just as importantly, learning how to properly use one. Taking a first-aid course, and CPR training, are both investments that could pay off big someday, for you, and for your loved ones. 

 

Having enough stored water for at least 3 days (1 gal/day per person + pets), a reasonable supply of non-perishable food, a NWS Emergency weather radio, a little cash in case the ATMs and Credit Card readers are down, and a safe form of emergency lighting (not candles) are all things every household should have on hand. 

 

And for my money, perhaps most importantly, having – and being – a `disaster buddy’. 

 

In NPM14: In an Emergency, Who Are You Going To Call?, I wrote that a `Disaster Buddy’ is simply someone you have prearranged that you can call on during a crisis, and who in turn, can call on you if they need help.  And the more `disaster buddies’  you have in your personal network, the more options you will have in an emergency.

 

And for more on emergency preparedness, you may wish to revisit some of these earlier blogs.

 

• Spring Forward Into Preparedness
• Appreciating The Nature Of The Threat
• When Evacuation Is The Better Part Of Valor

Nepal Struck By A 7.9 Quake – Major Damage Reported (Updated)

 

UPDATED 0700 hrs EST:   The USGS has downgraded this quake to M7.8, but has revised their damage/fatality estimates upwards, with as many as 10,000 deaths possible.   This is a rapidly evolving situation, and we are only now starting to get reports from the ground.

 

 

 

# 9978

 

Four years ago, in UNDP: Supercities At Seismic Risk, we looked at a United Nations Development Programme study that warned half of the world’s supercities (urban areas with 2 million – 15 million inhabitants) were at high risk of seismic activity.  From their press release:

 

A significant number of very large cities with high population density such as Tokyo, Mexico City, Port-au-Prince, Istanbul or Kathmandu, many in developing countries with rapidly expanding population, are located near fault zones that have caused major earthquakes in the past – and most likely will again in the future.

 

Over the past several hours Nepal has seen a cluster of a dozen strong earthquakes – topped off by an M7.9, and followed by an M6.6 – striking in the region Northwest of Kathmandu.  Fortunately, the epicenter of the strongest quake was 50 miles from the heart of Kathmandu.

 

The USGS pager system, which generates likely damage based on location, magnitude, depth, and ground shaking, has estimated between 100 and 1,000 fatalities likely occurred.   (See update above)

We’re just starting to get on-the-scene reports of damage and injuries, and those will be coming in for hours, if not days.  Strong aftershocks may continue for weeks as well.

 

While Nepal is no stranger to strong quakes (M6.8 in 1988, 2011 M6.9 Sikkim Quake ) this is the strongest quake to strike the region since the M8.0+ 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake, which claimed at least 10,000 lives.

The deep reds in the USGS map below show the areas most at risk of seismic activity, and as you’ll see the boundary where Northern India and the Eurasian plate meet is one the more active regions of the world.

Seismically active areas of the world

Earthquakes strike without warning, and literally billions of people live on, or near seismic zones.   Millions more live within range of earthquake driven tsunamis. The ground beneath one’s feet can violently shift in an instant, making it imperative that you, your family, and your business are prepared.

 

Working to improve earthquake awareness, preparation, and safety is Shakeout.org, which promotes yearly earthquake drills and education around the country (see NPM13: A Whole Lotta Shakeouts Going On).  If you live in one of these seismically active areas, I would encourage you to take part in these yearly drills.

Every home should have no less than a 72-hour supply of emergency food and water, for all of its occupants (including pets!).  This is a bare minimum, here in the United States many agencies and organizations recommend that households work towards having a 10-day supply of food, water, and emergency supplies on hand.

 

In When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough, I highlighted  a colorful, easy-to-follow, 100 page `survival guide’ released by Los Angeles County, that covers everything from earthquake and tsunami preparedness, to getting ready for a pandemic.

While admittedly California-threat specific, this useful guide may be downloaded here (6.5 Mbyte PDF).

For more information on emergency preparedness, I would invite you  to visit:

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

And some of my preparedness blogs, including:

NPM14: The Advantages Of Having A Shaky Preparedness Plan

The Gift Of Preparedness – 2014 Edition

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

Viral Creep In Second Decade Of The 21st Century

Photo Credit- CDC

 

# 9965

 

 

Eleven years ago the Report of the WHO/FAO/OIE Joint Consultation on Emerging Zoonotic Diseases, convened in Geneva, defined an emerging zoonosis as ‘a zoonosis that is newly recognised or newly evolved, or that has occurred previously but shows an increase in incidence or expansion in geographical, host or vector range’

 

Last year, in Emerging zoonotic viral diseases  L.-F. Wang (1, 2) * & G. Crameri wrote:

 

The last 30 years have seen a rise in emerging infectious diseases in humans and of these over 70% are zoonotic (2, 3). Zoonotic infections are not new. They have always featured among the wide range of human diseases and most, e.g. anthrax, tuberculosis, plague, yellow fever and influenza, have come from domestic animals, poultry and livestock. However, with changes in the environment, human behaviour and habitat, increasingly these infections are emerging from wildlife species.

 

Patterns that were predicted nearly two decades ago by well respected anthropologist and researcher George Armelagos (May 22, 1936 - May 15, 2014) - of Emory University - who wrote Disease in human evolution: the re-emergence of infectious disease in the third epidemiological transition. National Museum of Natural History Bulletin for Teachers 18(3)

I wrote at some length back in 2011 on The Third Epidemiological Transition, which Dr. Armelagos called the age of re-emerging infectious diseases, a concept he expanded upon in 2010 in The Changing Disease-Scape in the Third Epidemiological Transition, where he wrote:

 

It is characterized by the continued prominence of chronic, non-infectious disease now augmented by the re-emergence of infectious diseases. Many of these infections were once thought to be under control but are now antibiotic resistant, while a number of “new” diseases are also rapidly emerging. The existence of pathogens that are resistant to multiple antibiotics, some of which are virtually untreatable, portends the possibility that we are living in the dusk of the antibiotic era. During our lifetime, it is possible that many pathogens that are resistant to all antibiotics will appear. Finally, the third epidemiological transition is characterized by a transportation system that results in rapid and extensive pathogen transmission.

 

In other words, the emergence of MERS-CoV, H5N1, Nipah, Hendra, Lyme Disease, H7N9, H5N6, H10N8, NDM-1, CRE, etc. are not temporary aberrations. They are the new norm, and we should get used to seeing more pathogens like these appear in the coming years.

 

The emerging infectious diseases are considered such an important threat that the CDC maintains as special division – NCEZID (National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases) – to deal with them. According to the NCEZID:

Emerging means infections that have increased recently or are threatening to increase in the near future. These infections could be

• completely new (like Bourbon virus, which was recently discovered in Kansas or MERS, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome).
• completely new to an area (like chikungunya in Florida).
• reappearing in an area (like dengue in south Florida and Texas).
• caused by bacteria  that have become resistant to antibiotics, like MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus), C. difficile, or drug-resistant TB.

 

Over the past 36 months we’ve seen:

• A novel Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) emerge in the Middle East
• Several new avian flu strains have emerged and jumped to humans, including H7N9, H5N6, H10N8, and H6N1. 
• Chikungunya arrived in the Americas, and has already infected well over 1 million people. 
• Several new tickborne diseases have emerged (Heartland Virus, Bourbon Virus, SFTS) in the United States and around the world. 
• Last summer a new variant of a rarely seen EV-D68 virus swept across the United States, sickening hundreds of thousands of kids and leaving more than 100 paralyzed.

 

And in the wings we have a number of epizootic diseases – like HPAI H5N2, H5N8, canine H3N2, H10N7 and H3N8 in seals – that while they haven’t jumped to humans, have at least some potential to do so in the future.

Although our awareness of some of these threats is no doubt enhanced by our improved surveillance and testing capabilities, there are reasons to believe the number of zoonotic threats facing us are increasing faster today than we’ve seen in the past.

 

Additionally, some zoonotic threats – like Lyme disease – are now recognized as being far more prevalent than previously appreciated.  In 2013, the CDC revised their Estimate Of Yearly Lyme Disease Diagnoses In The United States, indicating that the number of Lyme Disease diagnoses in the country is probably closer to 300,000 than the 30,000 that are officially reported each year to the CDC.

While exotic diseases have always existed and plagued mankind, never before has mankind been so able to aid and abet their global spread, via our increasingly mobile society.  

 

Chikungunya was undoubtedly introduced by viremic travelers to the Caribbean in the fall of 2013, who inadvertently `seeded’ the virus into the local mosquito population.  Since then there have been well over 1.3 million infections in the Americas – spanning more than 3 dozen nations - and millions more will undoubtedly be infected in the years to come.  

 

Presumably Dengue arrived in South Florida in 2009 in a similar fashion, as did West Nile Virus to NYC in the late 1990s. Earlier this year we learned of two travelers who returned to Vancouver infected with the H7N9 virus.  A year previously, a nurse died in Alberta, Canada after contracting H5N1 while on a visit to China. 

 

And we’ve seen a handful of Ebola and MERS cases travel via aircraft to the United States, Europe, and the Philippines over the past year.

 

While vector-borne illnesses like West Nile, Dengue, and Chikungunya have done the best so far, there is really no way to know what the `next big thing’ in global infectious disease spread will be.  As the CDC’s Global Health Website puts it:

 

Why Global Health Security Matters

Disease Threats Can Spread Faster and More Unpredictably Than Ever Before

(Excerpt)

A disease threat anywhere can mean a threat everywhere. It is defined by

• the emergence and spread of new microbes;
• globalization of travel and trade;
• rise of drug resistance; and
• potential use of laboratories to make and release—intentionally or not—dangerous microbes.

(Continue . . .)

 

A recent Assessment by the Director of National Security (see DNI: An Influenza Pandemic As A National Security Threat) found the global spread of infectious diseases – along with cyber attacks, terrorism, extreme weather events, WMDs, food and water insecurity, and global economic concerns.- constitutes a genuine threat to national security.

 

As we discussed last year,  in The New Normal: The Age Of Emerging Disease Threats, the reality of life in this second decade of the 21st century is that disease threats that once were local, can now spread globally in a matter of hours or days.

 

We’ve been lulled into a false sense of security since the last pandemic was relatively mild, and the feeling is they only come around every 30 or 40 years.  But viruses don’t read calendars, or play by `mostly likely worst-case scenario rules’  that are adopted by most planning committees.

 

The time has come to take pandemic planning seriously again, not because of one specific threat like MERS or H5N1, but because there’s a growing list of pathogens with pandemic potential queuing up around the globe.

 

All of which makes this a good  time for agencies, organizations, businesses, communities, and families to dust off their pandemic plans, review them, and make any needed refinements.  

 

You do have a pandemic plan, don’t you?

 

For some recent pandemic preparedness blogs, you may wish to revisit:

 

Do You Still Have A CPO?

Pandemic Planning For Business

NPM13: Pandemic Planning Assumptions

The Pandemic Preparedness Messaging Dilemma

America’s PrepareAthon! 2015

 

 

# 9943

 

The overriding lesson I’ve learned after six decades on this planet – a good deal of which was spent either living aboard a sailboat, or as a paramedic -  is that things can go from good to exceedingly bad in a heartbeat, and often without warning.  

 

A tornado, an earthquake, a house fire, a heart attack, or an auto accident  . . . they can all change your life in an instant. 

 

While we can’t pick and choose what emergencies will befall us – we can elect whether or not to be prepared to deal with them – and so federal agencies like FEMA and READY.GOV work year-round to encourage Americans to think about their risks, and to prepare for them.

Although we’ve seen a dramatic drop in natural disasters in the United States over the past few years, Emergency Managers know that lucky streak won’t last forever.  And the longer we go between severe hurricanes, a major earthquake, or some other big natural disaster  . . . the more complacent, and unprepared . .  our population becomes.

 

Between seeing September declared National Preparedness Month each year since 2004, a strong push for hurricane preparedness in late May each year (see Hurricane Preparedness Week 2014), and numerous Shakeout.org  earthquake drills (see NPM14: The Advantages Of Having A Shaky Preparedness Plan) each year, progress is being made.

 

Still, a 2013 Red Cross Hurricane Preparedness poll  found only about half who responded had an evacuation plan, 1/3rd had no home disaster supplies, and only about half reported having a family communications plan.

 

So there remains considerable room for improvement.  

 

To that end, last year FEMA and READY.GOV introduced National PrepareAthon! Day, which is actually part of a two-season campaign for better preparedness.  The spring National PrepareAthon! Day occurs on April 30th, while the fall component comes on September 30th at the close of National Preparedness Month. 

To learn how you can take part, go to America's PrepareAthon!

 

 

 About America's PrepareAthon!

America's PrepareAthon! is an opportunity for individuals, organizations, and communities to prepare for specific hazards through drills, group discussions, and exercises.

National PrepareAthon! Day is April 30, 2015 and will revolve around taking the actions to prepare for these six specific hazards:

• Earthquake
• Flood
• Hurricane
• Tornado
• Wildfire
• Winter Storm

Campaign Goals

The goal of this campaign is to increase the number of individuals who:

• Understand which disasters could happen in their community
• Know what to do to be safe and mitigate damage
• Take action to increase their preparedness
• Participate in community resilience planning

What can I do?

• Register to participate in America’s PrepareAthon! and provide details about the activities you’re planning.
• Plan your own local community or organizational preparedness event
• Participate in discussion forums online with like-minded community members
• Learn the actions to take for disaster preparedness and practice them!

Where can I find more information?

• For more information about disasters, preparedness, and ways to get involved in America's PrepareAthon!, click here to access the America's PrepareAthon! Fact Sheet and Frequently Asked Questions.

Webinar: “Building a More Resilient Nation: National Preparedness Month and America's PrepareAthon!”

• Watch the webinar
• Read the webinar transcript

Stay in Touch

Email: prepareathon@fema.gov

Twitter: @PrepareAthon follow the conversation #PrepareAthon

To move people to action, the President, through Presidential Policy Directive (PPD-8), has directed all federal agencies to work with their stakeholders across the country to “coordinate a comprehensive campaign to build and sustain national preparedness, including public outreach and community-based and private-sector programs to enhance national resilience…”

 

 

Although this is primarily an infectious disease blog, its secondary focus is on reasonable, practical, and achievable personal, corporate, and community preparedness.    

A search on `preparedness’ or `NPM’  will return scores of earlier blogs, but a few recent examples include:

 

UK: 2015 Civil Risks Register

Tsunami Preparedness Week - 2015

Are You Ready For Tornado Season 2015?

Do You Still Have A CPO?

UK: 2015 Civil Risks Register

 

# 9917

 

Since 2008 the UK government has produced, and updated every two years, a National Risk Register For Civil Emergencies – essentially a short list of disaster scenarios (man-made & natural) that the Cabinet Office believe to be genuine threats.  The Cabinet Office describes it as:

 

The National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies (NRR) is the unclassified version of the National Risk Assessment (NRA), a classified assessment of the risks of civil emergencies facing the UK over the next five years. The NRR is a public resource for individuals and organisations wishing to be better prepared for emergencies.

 

Since emergency preparedness is a big part of this blog, knowing what governments view as their greatest disaster threats can go a long way in helping us decide how, and for what, we should be preparing.  

 

There are regional differences that must be considered -  the UK is not prone to major earthquakes, tornadoes, or Hurricanes –  so those who live in areas that are must adjust accordingly.

 

The UK has divided their disaster risks into three broad categories:

1. Malicious or Terrorist Attacks
2. Natural Hazards
3. Major Accidents

 

This document bases its assessment on each scenario on the likelihood of it happening over the next five years and on the consequences or impacts to the population. They use what the NRA and NRR consider to be a ‘reasonable worst case’ scenario, while  `highly implausible scenarios’ are excluded.

Plausibility for terrorist attack scenarios are rated from low to high, while (broad) numerical odds are offered for the other types of disasters.  In either case, the impact factor is rated from 1 (low) to 5 (maximum).

 

Despite the airtime and attention that terrorism gets, the following chart shows that most `terrorist-related’ scenarios cluster the overall impact in the mid-range, with probabilities running from medium-low to high.  A truly catastrophic terrorist attack is only accorded a medium-low probability.

 

When it comes to `high impact and high probability’ events, the following chart (highlight mine) shows that Pandemic Influenza stands alone atop the list.  While thermonuclear war or an asteroid impact could conceivably wreak more havoc on our planet, neither are considered to be anywhere near as likely as a severe pandemic.

 

 

From the section on Pandemic Influenza, they write:

 

Pandemic influenza

2.3 Influenza pandemics are natural phenomena that have occurred over the centuries, and most recently in 2009 in the shape of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. There are other influenza strains in circulation globally, such as H5N1 (avian influenza) which emerged in South East Asia in 1996 and caused millions of deaths among poultry and several hundred human deaths. The consensus view among experts is that there is a high probability of another influenza pandemic occurring. It is impossible to forecast its timing or the nature of its impact.

Emerging infectious diseases

2.4 Over the past 25 years, more than 30 new, or newly recognised, infections have been identified around the world, although the likelihood of a new disease spreading to the UK is low. A recent example of a newly emerged infectious disease is SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), which emerged in Asia in November 2002 and posed a global health threat.

Consequences

2.5 Consequences may include:

• in the case of pandemic influenza, half the UK population potentially being infected, with between 20,000 and 750,000 additional deaths potentially by its end
• around 2,000 people infected in the case of a new/emerging infectious disease, with some 100 additional deaths potentially by its end
• in the absence of early or effective interventions to deal with a pandemic, significant social and economic disruption, significant threats to the continuity of essential services, lower production levels, and shortages and distribution difficulties.

 

It is no coincidence that a severe pandemic has ranked at the top of almost every list of highly disruptive national security threats in recent years (see 2011 OECD Report: Future Global Shocks,  UK: Civil Threat Risk Assessment, Influenza Pandemic As A National Security Threat).    

 

Credit - HHS Interim Pre-Pandemic Planning Guidence: Community Strategy For Pandemic Influenza Mitigation In the United States.

 

 

Considered just as likely to occur – but carrying a lower impact – are events such as:

• Severe Space Weather  (see NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012)
• Weather Extremes (Cold weather & Heavy snow  or Heat wave)
• Poor Air quality events
• Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (impacting, but outside of the UK)
• Storms and Gales

Considered somewhat less  likely, but with potentially higher impacts for the UK, are extreme coastal flooding and widespread electrical outages (see  GridEx 2013 Preparedness Drill). 

 

Without electricity, gas pumps won’t work, credit & debit cards are useless (got cash?), and refrigerated foods may quickly begin to spoil (in your home, and in the store).  For those who depend on electric heat during the winter or those who rely on medical devices – like oxygen generators – a prolonged outage could have deadly implications.

 

Our dependence upon our modern infrastructure, just in time deliveries, and a continuous supply of electricity makes all of us particularly vulnerable to any sudden interruption.  And as this risk assessment shows, there are a lot of things that could impact those resources. 

 

And this list is far from being all-inclusive.  The proverbial Black Swan Event  – the one no one really saw coming – is always a possibility.

 

Which is why agencies here in the United States -  like the HHS, CDC, FEMA, Ready.gov and others - work each day to convince citizens of the importance of being prepared for the unexpected, and why I devote a fair amount of this blog to everyday preparedness.

Given the broad range of potential disaster scenarios it doesn’t make sense to `prepare for a pandemic’ or `prepare for an earthquake’, since neither may show up when the wheel of misfortune is spun for your community. 

 

Instead, it makes sense to maintain a general level of preparedness against `all threats’.

 

As a former paramedic, I can’t stress enough the importance of having a good first aid kit at home, and another one in your car.  And just as importantly, learning how to properly use one. Taking a first-aid course, and CPR training, are both investments that could pay off big someday, for you, and for your loved ones. 

Basic kit : NWS radio, First Aid Kit, Lanterns, Water & Food & cash

 

And every home should have no less than a 72-hour supply of emergency food and water, for all of its occupants (including pets!).  This is a bare minimum, here in the United States many agencies and organizations recommend that households work towards having a 10-day supply of food, water, and emergency supplies on hand (see When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough). 

.

Although I’ve covered a great many specifics for becoming better prepared (see NPM14: Infrastructure Failure Preparedness & NPM14: When You’ve Got To `Get Out Of Dodge’ In A Hurry), there is one prep I consider to be the most important of all.

 

Having – and being – a `disaster buddy’.

 

In NPM14: In an Emergency, Who Are You Going To Call?, I wrote that a `Disaster Buddy’ is simply someone you have prearranged that you can call on during a crisis, and who in turn, can call on you if they need help.

 

None of this is to suggest you should be sitting around worrying about the myriad of possible disaster scenarios.  Worrying never solved anything. You should be preparing – sensibly – instead. 

 

After all, preparing is easy . . . it’s worrying that is hard.