Saturday, January 11, 2014

Referral: Two H7N9 Posts From Dr. Mackay

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# 8158

 

 

China’s provincial Ministries of Health are slower to report new H7N9 cases  during the weekend than during the week, but so far this morning we’ve seen media reports of at least three new cases (1 in Zhejiang, 2 in Guangdong).  I’ll have a round up of these new cases later today.


In the meantime, Dr. Ian Mackay on his Virology Down Under Blog, has a couple of new H7N9-related posts, the first concerning what may either be a blip in the data, or a change in the demographics of infection.


Last spring infections with the H7N9 virus were skewed heavily towards elderly males (see WHO H7N9 Study: Preliminary Age & Sex Distribution - running counter to China’s population demographics - which is heavily weighted towards young and middle-aged adults and where there are more women than men among the elderly. 

 

Here is an early graph showing basically a 2:1 ratio of male to female cases (next to H5N1 demographics).

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Figure 1. Age group and sex distribution of reported human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) and A(H5N1) viruses, China, as of 16 April 2013

 

 

While males infections still outnumber females, since October we’ve seen a more even distribution of cases between the genders, which has led Professor Mackay to create the following graphic and blog entry.

 

H7N9 by sex and week...are female cases on the rise?

I tip the hat I'm not currently wearing to CIDRAP's excellent staff writer, Lisa Schnirring for the idea that led to this chart.

 (Continue . . . .)

In another post, Ian (who does terrific graphic work) produces an excellent Heat Map of cases in Eastern China, showing which provinces have seen the most cases since last spring.

 

Influenza A (H7N9) hotspot map updated: 164 cases...

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H7N9 Hotspot Map - Credit Dr. Ian Mackay VDU Blog