Sunday, August 24, 2014

NCSS Probability Report On California Aftershocks



# 8995


I’m watching the live feed from KGO-TV, and there does appear to be some significant damage from this morning’s earthquake in Napa, California.   Several house fires, some buckling of roads, and power outages.   KGO-TV is reporting that one local hospital is treating 70 injuries.


The Northern California Seismic System (NCSS) has prepared the following report on the probability of aftershocks in the coming weeks.




Published on August 24, 2014 @ 10:38:55 UTC

Northern California Seismic System (NCSS) operated by UC Berkeley and USGS

Version 0: This report supersedes any earlier probability reports about this event.


At this time (immediately after the mainshock) the probability of a strong and possibly damaging aftershock IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS is approximately 54 PERCENT


Most likely, the recent mainshock will be the largest in the sequence. However, there is a small chance (APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 PERCENT) of an earthquake equal to or larger than this mainshock in the next 7 days.

WEAK AFTERSHOCKS (Magnitude 3 to 5) -

In addition, approximately 30 to 70 SMALL AFTERSHOCKS are expected in the same 7-DAY PERIOD and may be felt locally.

This probability report is based on the statistics of aftershocks typical for California. This is not an exact prediction, but only a rough guide to expected aftershock activity. This probability report may be revised as more information becomes available.


Today’s temblor will helpfully serve as another wake up call for those who live in seismically active regions.  I addressed some earthquake preparedness issues in my earlier post M6.0 Quake Rattles Region North Of San Francisco

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