Tuesday, May 16, 2017

HK CHP Avian Flu Report Week 19

Credit HK CHP


Hong Kong's Centre For Health Protection has published their latest weekly avian influenza report which details 23 recent H7N9 cases on the mainland, all of which were telegraphed last Friday by an NHFPC report from Beijing.
Normally, by mid-May, Mainland China's H7N9 epidemic is all but over, with just a few stragglers being reported.
While some of the cases being reported in today's summary supposedly had illness onsets as far back as early-to-mid April (cite), the expected summer respite from cases has yet to materialize. 

Once again, Hebei province - which reported 7 cases last week - is in the lead with 5 new cases.  Henan, Shaanxi and Sichuan report 3 cases each. Beijing and Jiangsu each report 2 new cases, and Fujian, Gansu, Hubei, Tianjin and Zhejiang each report one.

Avian Influenza Report

Avian Influenza Report is a weekly report produced by the Respiratory Disease Office, Centre for Health Protection of the Department of Health. This report highlights global avian influenza activity in humans and birds.

Reporting period: May 7, 2017 – May 13, 2017 (Week 19)
(Published on May 16, 2017)


1. Since the previous issue of Avian Influenza Report (AIR), there were 23 new human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) reported by the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) from Hebei (5 cases), Henan (3 cases), Shaanxi (3 cases), Sichuan (3 cases), Beijing (2 cases), Jiangsu (2 cases), Fujian (1 case), Gansu (1 case), Hubei (1 case), Tianjin (1 case) and Zhejiang (1 case). Since March 2013 (as of May 13, 2017), there were a total of 1486 human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) reported globally. Since October 2016 (as of May 13, 2017), 680 cases have been recorded in Mainland China.
2. Since the previous issue of AIR, there were no new human cases of avian influenza A(H5N6). Since 2014 (as of May 13, 2017), 16 human cases of avian influenza A(H5N6) were reported globally and all occurred in Mainland China. The latest case was reported on December 1, 2016.
3. Since the previous issue of AIR, there were no new human cases of avian influenza A(H5N1). From 2011 to 2016, 10 to 145 confirmed human cases of avian influenza A(H5N1) were reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) annually (according to onset date). In 2017, there have been so far two cases in Egypt.*

The demographics of cases remain skewed, with no cases under the age of 30, and 13 of 23 cases male. Only one is listed as `mild', while 7 already have fatal outcomes. This seems to be an increasing trend, and either indicates delays in reporting some cases, or a faster progression from diagnosis to death.
This, you will recall, was a concern raised last month following reports (see Eurosurveillance: Preliminary Epidemiology & Analysis Of Jiangsu's 5th H7N9 Wave) of recently observed `accelerated disease progression of H7N9 patients'.
With warmer summer temperatures the number of cases is expected to decline over the coming weeks.  At least that's been the pattern after the first 4 epidemic waves.

But, as we've seen so many times before, past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes.  So we'll simply have to wait and see.

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