#13,579
With winds now at a solid 110 MPH - Hurricane Michael is on the cusp of becoming a CAT 3 storm - and with another 24 hours of warm water to cross, is expected to intensify further before landfall.
The forecast track has remained constant for the past few model runs, putting landfall in the panhandle tomorrow afternoon. The forecast cone (above) does not - however - show the full extent of this storm's likely impact, or damage.
From the 11am discussion by the National Hurricane Center.
Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the central United States. As the trough moves eastward it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday.
The hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some differences in forward speed thereafter. The GFS and ECMWF have trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been adjusted accordingly.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 25.0N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 86.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.8N 86.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 30.8N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1200Z 37.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 50.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
It would not surprise me to see hurricane conditions extend into southern Alabama and Georgia, and residents there and across much of the Florida panhandle should be prepared to deal with prolonged power outages.
Storm surge, particularly to the right (east) of where the eye comes ashore, is likely to be severe, with 9+ feet of water over the land in some places. If you live in an evacuation zone, now is the time to leave.
 |
| Credit NHC |
As always, when it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
For some recent blogs on how to prepare for a hurricane, and deal with the aftermath, you may wish to revisit:If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.
#Natlprep: No Time Like The Present To Prepare
#NatlPrep: For A Brighter Day (and Night).
#NatlPrep: After The Storm Passes
