You Will Be On Your Own

One of the grim realities of a pandemic is, that in large measure, you will be on your own. In the face of a massive outbreak, there is little that FEMA or local government can do to help you. If there is one common message (albeit hidden in `polite’ language) from our state and federal government, it is that individuals must take responsibility for themselves.

A pandemic is not like a Hurricane or an earthquake. It is not a localized event. The cavalry will not be dispatched from a neighboring state to assist you, and the Feds will be spread far too thin to make much of an impact.

If you fail to stockpile food, you will likely go hungry for some time. You could even starve to death. FEMA will not be arriving in your neighborhood to dispense ice, water, and MRE’s. Grocery stores will likely close, and stay closed for days, weeks, or longer. They will sell out to bare shelves when a pandemic starts, and deliveries of new stock may not arrive for some time. When they do arrive, there will be long lines of very hungry people, some of whom may be infected, to deal with.

Right now, the government is telling every individual to stockpile food, but they aren’t saying for how long. FEMA recommends at least 2 weeks supply, but this isn’t for a pandemic, this is for routine disasters like hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes. On Oprah yesterday, Dr. Osterholm suggested 4 to 5 weeks. That, I believe is a minimum.

Pandemics come in waves, usually 2 or 3, over a period of 1 to 2 years. Each wave can last 6 to 12 weeks. There is usually a lull of a couple of months between waves. Yes, there are still infections, but the numbers go down. During these lulls, it is possible that stores may be restocked. Not guaranteed, but possible.

It makes sense then, to plan on having a 3-month supply of food on hand for your family. That won’t cover you if the stores are not restocked, but few of us have the room or the money to stockpile a two-year supply of food. Not that there aren’t some people who are doing that. There are. I know of some people who are shooting for a 5-year supply.

For many of you, you may be thinking that it is impossible to buy, and store, a 3-month supply of food. I suppose, for some, that may be true. But most of us can set aside a closet, or boxes under our beds, and fill them with cheap, heat and eat, canned foods. A family of 4 can survive on $3 a day, if push comes to shove. No, you won’t be happy with your meals, but you won’t be eyeing the family cat and trying to figure out if it’s a roaster or a fryer, either.

The cheapest foods, rice and dried beans, take a long time to cook. If you are sure you will be able to cook, then these are fine. But the possibility of power outages exist, and even interruptions in gas deliveries. Better to go with foods that can simply be heated, or at the very least, quickly cooked.

I visited a `discount’ grocery store the other day, and found 40 ounce cans of macaroni with beef (well, tiny specks of something brown, anyway) for a dollar a can. Boxes of Instant rice (14 ounce) for a dollar. Corned beef in a can for a dollar. Pasta for about 40 cents a pound. Spaghetti Sauce for a dollar a can. And gravy mixes for .33 cents apiece.

All of these items can be heated, or cooked, in 5 to 10 minutes. A $20 camp stove, and some 1lb propane bottles, and you are in business.

No, you won’t be waking up to French toast in the mornings, or serving 5 course meals at dinner. We are talking about survival here. One-pot meals. Probably twice a day.

Water will be another problem. You need to figure on 1 gallon per person/day. A family of 4 would need nearly 500 gallons to survive for 3 months. Storing that much water, for most of us, is impossible. But storing a week or two supply can be easily done. A supply of bleach on hand will allow you to treat any suspect water (even from your tap) that you may acquire once your stored supplies run dry.

As far as hospitals go, during a pandemic, the odds are they will be quickly overwhelmed. Most flu victims will be stuck at home, and will never have access to ventilators, antibiotics, or doctors. During a normal flu season, hospitals often exceed capacity. During a pandemic, they will become a madhouse.

There are roughly 105,000 respiratory ventilators in the United States, spread across thousands of hospitals. During a pandemic, millions of people may need them all at the same time. You do the math.

IF a pandemic occurs, you had better plan on treating your family members at home. Only a lucky few will find a hospital bed. Fewer still will have access to a ventilator. As far as medicines are concerned, the stockpile of anti-virals will be exhausted very early on in an epidemic, as will antibiotics. In short, for the vast majority of victims, there is very little that the hospitals will be able to do that you cannot at home.

While this is a grim assessment, I believe it is realistic. Of course, a pandemic may not happen this year, or even next. But it will happen at some point. And right now, with Avian Flu simmering in the 3rd world, we are at tremendous risk.

The difference between surviving it, and becoming a dry statistic, will be your willingness and ability to prepare in advance.