Boil, Boil, Toil and Trouble
It’s been a busy couple of days on the flu front. More deaths in Indonesia, reports of children coughing up blood in Nigeria in and around the poultry die offs, confirmation of Avian Flu in birds in Greece , Italy, and Bulgaria, and an ominous statement by David Nabarro at the UN.
We’ll start with David Nabarro.
A year ago, scientists said the H5N1 virus needed, perhaps, 10 specific mutations before it could turn into a pandemic strain. Late last year, it was announced we were down to needing only 5.
On Friday, Dr. Nabarro, in a newspaper interview, stated we were down to needing only 2 more mutations. The UN has been very careful not to overstate the situation. They know the power of words, and are very precise in how they use them. This admission is looked upon as a very strong warning by those watching the situation.
In Italy, where the winter Olympics opened on Friday night, the suspicion has been strong for weeks that they have been withholding information regarding avian flu in their country. Turkey, weeks ago, accused it’s neighboring countries of hiding the truth.
Well, shortly after the opening ceremonies began, Italy admitted they had found infected birds. Greece admitted the same, almost at the same time. Curious timing, to say the least. But hey, at least they didn’t scare off any tourists from coming to the games.
Cases keep popping up in Indonesia. Two women, ages 22 and 37, from the town of Bekasi, a town just east of the capital, Jakarta, died within hours of each other last week. Lab tests confirmed they died of Avian flu.
The news out of Iraq is spotty. We know that 70,000 doses of Tamiflu are en route. And that 50 villages remain under quarantine. Sounds like they have a problem. But details are not being released.
And the big news is Africa. Hundreds of thousands of dead chickens in Nigeria. Lab tests confirm Bird Flu. Unconfirmed reports of sick, or dying children. Almost no public health system in place. And rampant poverty abounds.
Avian Flu in Africa is the World Health Organizations 2nd worse nightmare (a pandemic is #1). A large percentage of the population is immuno compromised from HIV. Estimates run up to 25% . People with Immune systems dysfunctions are known to harbor, and shed, the virus for much longer than those with normally active immune systems. This provides a better host for the virus, and gives it more time to mutate.
Worse, people die of strange diseases every day in Africa. Most of the time, they just bury the dead and never investigate. Everything from dysentery, typhoid, cholera, and ebola … plus a bunch of diseases you’ve never heard of, are endemic there. There is a report of 52 children dieing this week in one village alone. Avian Flu? No way to know. Could be anything. But it illustrates how difficult it will be to track any outbreak in Africa.
Reliable testing laboratories in Africa are nearly non-existant. Health officials have had little luck convincing people to accept polio vaccines, because of superstitions and distrust of outsiders. Convincing these people to give up their chickens, for some, the only source of food or wealth in their lives, will be nearly impossible.
Africa is the perfect petri dish for avian flu to grow in. And it may well be weeks after an epidemic breaks out, before we even know it.
