As a purveyor of personal opinion, I sometimes get things wrong. I don’t like it, but it happens. The only thing to do, is to admit it publicly when it happens, and move on.
Readers of my blog are aware that since the beginning I’ve spoken out against the government mantra that a vaccine wouldn’t be available for at least six months.
I've stated over and over again that, except for a few lucky people in high places, inoculations for the vast majority of us wouldn’t be available for at least a year. Probably two. I’ve even suggested that the pandemic could be over before a vaccine might be manufactured in sufficient amounts to distribute widely.
In my wilder moments, where I’ve sat and looked at the supply chain and manufacturing capacity, I’ve even suggested that it might take three years to get a vaccine to the people.
But apparently I’ve been wrong all this time. My math has been faulty, and I’ve inadvertently misled my readers. For that, I apologize.
According to Klaus Stohr, the head of the World Health Organization Influenza Team, we would need six years to come up with enough vaccine to inoculate 20% of the world.
So I guess I’ve been overly optimistic. I will defer to Dr. Stohr, as his credentials far exceed mine. And his math seems pretty darn accurate.
Of course, he goes on to qualify his statements. But it doesn’t get any better. He seems to feel six years could be too optimistic. He admits it could take 8 to 10 years to really get a handle on it.
The H5N1 virus has already mutated into two clades, or versions. More may be coming. Each will likely require a separate vaccine. And over a period of time, probably months, each clade will mutate enough to render any existing vaccine ineffective. This will be a moving target, and one that will be exceedingly difficult to hit.
Add to this the apparent need for a shot many times stronger than a traditional flu shot, and the prospects get much worse.
Our ability to produce and distribute vaccine for seasonal flu each year demonstrates the problem. Worldwide, we make enough vaccine to inoculate 300 million people. Assuming we could double that number, that would only inoculate 10% of the world’s population. And if an effective vaccine requires (as is now thought) 12 x’s the amount of antigen of a regular flu shot, we are down to less than 1% a year.
Yet, we hear the same stock phrase repeated in nearly every news article and every interview from government officials about the flu. And I quote:
“It is unlikely that an effective vaccine will be available until at least six months after a pandemic begins”
The beauty of this statement is: it’s absolutely true.
But it implies something else, altogether.
People hear this and assume it is likely that a vaccine will be available after six months. Oh, I know it doesn’t say that. But that is the impression that the government would like to promote. Don’t worry, hang in there six months and we’ll have a vaccine.
Frankly, the first time I heard this mantra, I laughed out loud. It was so typical of government speak that warning sirens went off in my head immediately. I’m sure whoever came up with it, got a gold star that day.
Another classic quote from Dr. Stohr is that one dose of a safe, effective vaccine for H5N1 was "going to be much more valuable than diamonds."
Will the governments of the world now change their carefully crafted message, and admit that there will be no vaccine? Of course not. They will continue to use the old message point, because, after all, it is true.
When no effective vaccine (notice the qualifier : effective) becomes available after six months, what will governments do?
Well, they may simply explain that their original statement never promised a vaccine after six months, or if that isn’t politically palatable, they may try to use an older, ineffective vaccine to appease the masses. While it probably won’t help, at least they government will look like they are doing something, and they can blame its failure on scientists, God, or the phase of the moon.
What have we learned today, kids?
We’ve learned we must parse our government’s assurances very carefully. We must look beyond the surface and find the true message. And while this statement on vaccines may appear to be the most egregious one, let’s not forget two other classics, usually recited in the same paragraph by a government wonk.
A pandemic is not inevitable.
A pandemic is not imminent.
I’m sure you are every bit as comforted by these words as I am.
