For my `Other reader’

For the most part, this blog has been American-centric, because that’s where this author resides. But there are other areas of the world to consider besides the United States, and so I dedicate today’s entry to my other reader, who is not a resident of the US.

You know who you are.

According to the Scotsman, a secret report is circulating among the first tier of emergency officials in Britain that paints an altogether different picture of what a pandemic would be like than has been publicly admitted.

Yesterday, the BBC issued a report on the possibility of mass graves, supposedly from a `leaked’ government document. The `base’ projection of casualties (for Americans read: fatalities) in the UK is 53,700. This leaked document however projected a "prudent worst case" assessment, suggesting 320,000 could die in a pandemic. That number has brought on fears that mass burials, and delays of up to 17 weeks for interment, might ensue.

Today, the Scotsman upped the ante. Doubled it in fact. This new absolute worst-case scenario is for more than 700,000 deaths in the UK.

Some tidbits from today’s report:

The figure - far higher than previously stated - is contained in a Cabinet Office briefing paper prepared for emergency planning officials, which warns that the virus could strike the country in multiple "waves".

It also says the armed forces may not be available to help in an emergency because of Britain's extensive international military deployments.

Although ministers promised to order enough vaccine for the entire UK population, the document says that effective drugs "would not be available until at least four to six months after a pandemic had struck, which could be well after the first wave of illness in the UK".

Key health workers would be guaranteed the vaccine, but "other sectors should not assume priority access to pandemic vaccine", it warns.

The Cabinet Office paper has been circulated only to "Category 1 responders" - emergency services chiefs, local authorities, NHS officials and others responsible for drawing up contingency plans. It details the preparations under way for a flu pandemic arising in a number of ways, including the mutation of the H5N1 virus among birds.

This assessment is probably a more realistic worst-case scenario than the one reported by the BBC yesterday. Does that mean it will happen? Certainly not. The next pandemic could look like the 1957 Asian Flu, and then the original estimate of 53,700 deaths would be more likely.

If we see a repeat of the 1918 influenza, then yes, 700,000 deaths would be about right. That’s about 1 person in 90. Of course, if the next pandemic is worse than 1918, then all bets are off. But for now, 700,000 deaths is sobering enough.

I suppose this is a good news, bad news story.

The good news is the officials of the UK are seriously looking at an event equal to the 1918 pandemic. That’s a step in the right direction. Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson has said preparing for a pandemic was "a top priority" and "strong plans" were in place to respond.

The bad news is, officially, the public is only being warned of a relatively minor event.

Not being from the UK, I have no idea how responsible the Scotsman is in its reporting. Perhaps this is a case of trying to out trump the competition. But I doubt it. This number is in line with what one might expect from a moderately severe pandemic.

It is important for us to remember that what happens here in the United States will only be a small part of the story. That people all over the world will be affected if a pandemic should develop. We are not in this alone.

To that end, I intend to maintain a more international perspective in this blog. It's the least I can do, for my other reader.