LIES, DAMNED LIES, AND PRESS RELEASES
Over the past few weeks, flunatics have been distressed by the lack of reports from the field, and a bevy of upbeat assessments from government officials worldwide about their battle against bird flu. It isn't that we want this scourge to spread, we simply want the truth, and can tell when governments are lying.
Today we get two separate reports that appear to contradict each other from Indonesia. In the official government report, we are told they are winning the war against Bird Flu. Yep, according to the Indonesian Agricultural Minister, they expect to be free of the avian flu by 2008.
According to Anton Apriyantono, "During the rainy season, bird flu cases did increase, but in general, cases both in humans and animals are declining in Indonesia. This is because we have gained experience and are capable of fighting bird flu in better ways."
He goes on to say, "I'm still optimistic that Indonesia will be bird flu-free by 2008. We will boost cleaning-up efforts and vaccination drives."
Very encouraging. That is, until you look at this report, which also hit the paper today:
BANDARLAMPUNG, Lampung: A family of five was admitted to Abdul Moeloek hospital in Bandurlampung on Sunday, all suffering from suspected bird flu.
The family -- Abidi, the husband and his wife Sarmawati, both 52, and three of their six children, Septi, 12, Fitri, 8 and Putra, 5 -- are now being treated in an isolation room. The five have all demonstrated a high fever and a cough, symptoms of the deadly bird flu.
Sarmawati has been treated at the hospital since last Thursday. Her other three children had been diagnosed with bird flu earlier. Mohtar Rozi, 15, died March 31, and Betharia, 19, died April 4, while Bakhrudin, 26, is still being treated at the hospital.
(Ed. Note: Lampung is a province in Indonesia, located on the southern tip of the Island of Sumatra. Pop. est. 6.6 million).
I make this a cluster of 8, six are in isolation. Two have died. All in the same family. And the dates of onset of the disease between the first infected group, and the second, are two weeks apart. The expected incubation period of the disease.
Those of us with suspicious minds might say this sounds like a possible case of human to human (H2H) transmission. Not proof, of course. It is exceedingly difficult to prove such a thing. But very suspicious.
And in China last week, we were assured that China had gone 44 days without a case of bird flu. This assurance was made while another human case had already been admitted to the hospital on April 1st, and all of their personal contacts were being `monitored’.
China, incidentally, has recently cracked down on their news media, and has decreed that newspapers may no longer report on bird flu independently, and may only publish `official government news releases’.
There is still no word on the hundreds of reported `viral infections’ in the hunan province. Last we heard, no one knew what the disease was, and that many were in quarantine.
Whatever might be going on in Africa, is impossible to say. Except for Egypt, which as reported 12 human cases, the rest of the infected countries have denied any knowledge of human infection. Wait, that isn’t quite true. Sudan, yesterday did admit they might have a human case, a farmer whose chickens had died. But no word of any human infections from Niger, or Nigeria, where the virus is reported to be widespread.
Of course, in these countries, they don’t test people for the virus. If someone dies, they bury them. Quickly, as this is a tropical climate. Six thousand people die each day in Africa, from a variety of pathogens. AIDS, dysentery, malaria, even Ebola. With the exception of Ebola, no one takes much notice of why someone dies. A few hundred people a day could die of bird flu before anyone noticed.
Despite the spin, and the excruciating lack of news, flubies know they are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.
Any admission of the true number of cases in Indonesia, or China, or Africa would set off a new round of concern, particularly among economic interests. Tourism and trade would suffer. International agencies would press for more data, and might even wish to monitor the situation. And those are events that no government wants right now.
