How Many Horsemen in an Apocalypse?
Well, if you live in Indonesia, you’ve probably lost count. After the Tsunami in December 2004, it would be hard to believe matters could grow worse there, yet, for many the situation grows graver every day.
On top of the Bird Flu, and an increasing number of human infections, they have had a major earthquake killing 6,000 and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless, and Mt. Merapi is close to blowing it’s top.
The Indonesian government, dealing with these disasters, and an island nation of 6000 islands, is hard pressed to do much proactively against the Avian flu threat. Their resources are limited, and geographically, monitoring the inhabitants on thousands of small and often secluded islands is nearly impossible.
In short, one would be hard pressed to find a worse place in the world for the H5N1 virus to be learning new tricks. The only real hope of containment of an outbreak is having the WHO on the ground, with tamiflu, within days of a sustained cluster emerging, and that isn’t likely to happen. We will likely learn of an outbreak days or weeks even, after it has begun.
There are other places in the world where this could happen, too. Remote parts of Africa where thousands of people die routinely every day without seeing a doctor are particularly worrisome. But for now, all eyes are on Indonesia.
According to some scientists, there are at least two, and probably three strains of H5N1 roaming the countryside, maybe more. Some of these strains, or clades, show genetic signs of having passed from an intermediary host, on its journey from bird to human. What host that might be is unknown, but pigs, dogs, cats, and other mammals are suspected.
Unfortunately, very few genetic sequences have been publicly released, and so scientists around the world are left in the dark. This veil of secrecy (and the guilty parties are numerous) is as big of threat to the world as the H5N1 virus itself. Withholding scientific knowledge so that someone, somewhere can write a journal article, or patent a vaccine, is criminal.
The WHO speaks of the need for transparency, but they are among the worst offenders. Our own CDC reportedly has genetic sequences it refuses to release. And individual countries, in an attempt to hide the severity of the problem, are less than forthcoming.
There still may be time to find a vaccine, or an antiviral, or a treatment for H5N1. But politics and greed and ego all stand in the way. While the H5N1 virus is endemic in birds, Stupidity is already apparently a raging global pandemic.
