Two Hot Spots, A lot of Waiting
All flubian eyes right now are on Indonesia and Djibouti (eastern horn of Africa), where recent outbreaks of Human Avian Flu have errupted. While we get precious little news out of Africa, and the situation on the ground could be worse than we know, of these two, Indonesia has our greatest attention.
While details are slow in coming, and what we get is sketchy and oft times conflicting, there appears to be a cluster of at least 8 suspected human cases of H5N1 on the Indonesian island of Sumatra. All are family members who either live together or near one another, and of the 8 either 4 or 5 have died.
Local news accounts have placed the number as high as 20 cases, but these come from machine translated news articles, and their accuracy is therefore in doubt. There are local news reports of initial testing confirming the H5N1 virus as the culprit (not official until WHO says so), and that villagers are fleeing the area.
We can only wait for more news on this front. Our fear has always been that a large cluster would occur somewhere, and that it would not be contained. We seem to have a large cluster here, we should know in a few days just how serious this situation really is.
Africa continues to boil. A 2 year old girl has been confirmed to have H5N1, and her siblings are showing symptoms and tests are awaited. We continue to hear of other disturbing news from places like Nigeria and Somalia, but the local governments have their hands full with AIDS, civil wars, and famine, and are not exactly proactive when it comes do dealing with Avian Flu.
And from Canada last night, a strange news report on the radio. A friend in the Great White North heard this and contacted the radio station for confirmation. She received back an email with a condensed version of the report she heard.
CANADA'S HEALTH MINISTERS ARE MEETING THIS WEEKEND IN TORONTO TO SHARE INFORMATION ABOUT THE COMING INFLUENZA PANDEMIC.
B.C. HEALTH MINISTER GEORGE ABBOTT SAYS WHILE B.C. HAS EXPERTISE THROUGH ITS CENTRE FOR DISEASE CONTROL...THE TIMING AND SCOPE OF ANY PANDEMIC IS LARGELY A MYSTERY.
[CLIP]
WHILE THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER STRESS, ABBOTT BELIEVES SOCIETY "AS WE KNOW" WILL CONTINUE TO FUNCTION DURING THE INEVITABLE PANDEMIC.
Hyperbole? Perhaps. But this follows on the heels of an announcement of a Canadian Health official a few weeks back that they expected Avian Flu (in humans) to reach Canada within the next 3 months.
I doubt that anyone really knows when Avian Flu will arrive. But in recent weeks the tone of government officials has changed. We hear less that `scientists fear it may mutate into a pandemic' and more `we would not be surprised to see it here this year', with each passing day.
Accordingly, my threat level over the past few weeks has gone up. I have maintained that I believed we were looking at a 30% chance of a pandemic breaking out this year for quite some time. I think that number goes up now, and I am sitting at 50%.
That still means that the odds of a pandemic not occuring are 50% in my mind. But the drums are beating louder, and my concern has risen.
As this is mid-may, we should be seeing a drop in the number of cases of Avian Flu over the summer. Historically, H5N1 hibernates a bit during this time of the year, then errupts again in the fall.
It is important for all of us to remember that, even if that happens, we cannot let down our guard. A quiet summer is no reason to believe the threat has dissappeared.
The virus is out there, endemic in birds, and occasionaly infecting people.
And it is learning, adapting, and mutating every day.
